Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 6

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 06 Apr 2023, 16:28

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 6 - Stocks are mixed to higher at midday, albeit with a cautious tone. Traders are anticipating tomorrow's big jobs report, but know that they won't be able to trade it before the start of the week. That's because the markets will be closed tomorrow for the Easter holiday break. The VIX is trading below 19 at midday, reflecting relative calm on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 101.9, while yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.28% amid market expectations that the Federal Reserve is about to pivot. The market has been wrong for the past year, but it will eventually be right. Crude oil prices are modestly weaker, while the grain and oilseed markets are mixed to weaker.

Soybean prices fell sharply today, pulling corn prices down with them. Weaker chart signals with recession worry headwinds contributed to the weakness, but there were fundamental influencers as well. First, traders are wary of building ownership of corn and soybeans ahead of a three-day weekend amid fears that China will take significant steps of retaliation over the weekend for the Taiwan president's meeting with U.S. House Speaker Keven McCarthy. Second, soybean basis premiums in Brazil are breaking as farmers sell their massive crop off the combine. StoneX Brazil reported on Tuesday that farmers still had more than 3.1 billion bushels of soybeans to sell from the current crop, with yields coming in better than expected, with tremendous yields in the Center-West region. Improving Midwest weather adds pressure as well. The hard wheat markets found support in ongoing drought concerns for the southwestern Plains as well as planting delay concerns in the Northern Plains.

Some locations in the Dakotas received more than 30 inches of additional snowfall since Friday, adding to an already deep snowpack across the northwestern Corn Belt. Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota include 18 million of our nation's intended 92 million planted acres this year, or nearly one-fifth of the nation's corn acreage. The graphic below shows water equivalent in the snowpack currently over the region, which varies primarily between 2 and 12 inches of water. Much of the country is expected to see a rapid warmup next week as the weather pattern changes briefly. Readings are expected to reach into the 40s & 50s° F next week in the snowpack areas, which will accelerate the melt and elevate the flooding fears. Elsewhere, look for fieldwork to rapidly pick up across much of the rest of the Midwest next week as farmers work fast to get as much done as they can before the pattern reverts back again later this month.

Exporters sold 49.1 million bushels of current-year corn in the week ending March 30, along with 5.7 million bushels of current-year soybeans and 7.1 million bushels of current-year wheat. China accounted for 23.1 million bushels of the corn sales and 6 million bushels of the soybean sales. Soybean, milo and wheat sales were quite disappointing, with milo sales at zero during the week. Marketing year corn sales to date fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 54 million bushels, but the deficit is rapidly disappearing. Marketing year soybean export sales to date fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 48 million bushels, and the deficit is rapidly growing. We should see soybean shipments slow in the weeks ahead, while corn shipments pick up the pace as a result of these trends.

Grains & Oilseeds

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 11

June 11 – Iran-related headlines are again moving the markets this morning, along with more inflation related data that was released. Stock futures are mostly higher to start the day, while the VIX is also elevated to trade near 21. The dollar index is trading near 100.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.14% as the yield curve continues to slowly flatten on rising inflation concerns. WTI crude oil is trading near $90 per barrel, while Brent trades near $93 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mixed to lower overnight.

Arlan SudermanThu, 11 Jun 2026, 13:23

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

The Grain Selloff That Opened a Rare Window for Commercial Buyers

When speculative funds liquidate grain positions at scale, prices can fall fast enough to open a brief buying window that commercial end users are built to exploit. The latest selloff in corn and soybean markets produced exactly that, pulling Chicago Board of Trade prices to technical targets and drawing immediate physical demand from buyers in the U.S. and Brazil.

Editorial TeamWed, 10 Jun 2026, 23:01

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 10

June 10 – Stocks fell and crude oil prices rallied after President Trump posted a message essentially saying that Iran had “taken too long to negotiate a deal,” and that “now they will have to pay the price!” Additional volatility came from this morning’s consumer inflation data, which came in hot, but similar to expectations. That allowed stock futures to come off their session lows. The VIX is trading near 21 at this hour, after trading as high as 22.5 earlier in the session. The dollar index is trading near 99.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.12%. WTI crude oil is trading near $90 per barrel this morning, while Brent trades near $92 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly higher this morning, along with the energies.

Arlan SudermanWed, 10 Jun 2026, 13:38

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.