Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 10 Aug 2022, 16:54

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

August 10 - Optimism abounds on Wall Street today, with this morning's more favorable than expected inflation data putting traders into risk-on mode. Major stock indexes are all up on the day, with the NASDAQ leading the way as much as 2.5% higher. The VIX has fallen nearly 8% on the day to trade all the way down near 20, reflecting the positive sentiment being felt across the market. The U.S. dollar is down sharply on the day, breaking below 105 for the first time since early July, while yields on 10-year treasuries are also off to trade near 2.76%. Commodity markets are firming, with crude oil turning positive on the day while the ags are also up sizably.

Today's improved inflation data has some traders shifting expectations for the Fed to scale back to a 50 basis point hike in their September meeting, following consecutive 75 basis point hikes in June and July. The optimism following the positive CPI reading has been widespread today, though caution should be exercised. With labor markets still extremely tight, there's no guarantee that our nagging inflation problems are behind us just yet. The Fed will still need to remain diligent going forward until more consistent improvements are seen. Regardless, the market will take some good news where it can get it at this point.

U.S. crude oil production reached its highest level since April 2020 last week at 12.2 million barrels per day, according to this morning's report. WTI crude oil fell through the morning, though it has now rallied back to trade slightly in the green. National average gasoline prices have fallen slightly over 20% from their peak in June, now down to $4.01/gallon. Although this is their lowest level since early March, they're still up 25.9% from the same day last year, reflecting the widespread elevation in prices witnessed throughout 2022.

China's military has officially completed its exercises around Taiwan, they reported Wednesday. Their largest-ever drills in the area were launched in response to Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island and were originally scheduled to end Sunday. The announcement of their continuation prompted fears that the simulated blockade and attack may drag on indefinitely or unintentionally spark a more serious conflict, especially following Russia's build up of troops and repeated "exercises" prior to invading Ukraine in February. Although the current round of exercises are complete, China has vowed to continue regular patrols around the island, keeping tensions in the region high. Furthermore, updated official documents regarding China's position on Taiwan have removed the promise to not send troops to the island if it does take control. Though the end of the current military exercises will likely put the China/Taiwan story on the backburner for now, it's important to keep in mind what this potential black swan event would do to demand for U.S. ag commodities and its resulting impact on prices.

Intelligence from the U.K. suggests that Russia has built up major new ground forces within the country, with the intention of deploying into Ukraine soon to aid with their push forward in the nation's east and to hold off Ukrainian counter-offensives on occupied territories in the south. Although Russian officials have been largely unwilling to acknowledge it, widespread reports suggest Russian losses have been considerable in the war's new grinding, attrition phase. In an interesting turn, China's ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, said on Wednesday that the U.S. was "the initiator and main instigator of the Ukrainian crisis." Ties between Moscow and Beijing continue to grow as tensions between the East and West rise, with no end in sight to the conflict at this point.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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