Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 18

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Tue, 18 Aug 2026, 18:03

August 18 – Stocks remain squarely in the red at midday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq (-1.6%) leading the way down, followed by the S&P 500 (-0.6%), and Dow Jones (-0.2%) at the time of writing. The VIX is trading at a roughly two-week high today, albeit still relatively muted compared to much of 2026 thus far as it hovers just above the 15.7 level. The dollar is quietly in the green at midday, holding at the 99.65 level as it awaits direction, stuck in the same range it’s been for all of August. Treasuries have reversed course through the day after touching fresh highs, with 10-year yields back to trading just below 4.71% after pushing near 4.75% this morning and 2-year yields trading at 4.175% after trading as high as 4.20% this morning. Crude oil is having a very quiet day despite the ongoing geopolitical escalations in both the Middle East and Black Sea, with nearby WTI down 1% on the day to trade near $84.10 and nearby Brent up 0.3% on the day to trade near $91.20 at the time of writing. The ags have lost steam through the session, with soybeans still clinging to small gains after another fresh round of flash sales to China reported this morning, but the rest of the grain and oilseed complex largely in the red, with traders awaiting day two results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour later today.

The U.S. housing sector continues to show signs of weakness, with the wide array of data released this morning largely coming in softer than expected. Pending home sales in the U.S. dropped 2.3% month-over-month in July, sharply missing the average estimate of a 0.3% rise, though still showing improvement from the upwardly revised 4.8% month-over-month drop seen in June. In year-over-year terms, pending home sales were down 2.2% in July, the weakest level seen thus far in 2026. July housing starts were also weaker than expected, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.239 million, well below the average estimate of 1.350 million and not far above the six-year low seen in May. Furthermore, June was revised down slightly to now sit at 1.415 million versus the 1.427 million initially reported. Geographically speaking, the Northeast (+17.1%) was the only region to see a monthly rise in housing starts, while the sharpest drop was seen in the Midwest (-27.6%), followed by the West (-13.8%), and South (-12.6%). However, there was one silver lining in this morning’s data, with applications for building permits rising 5.0% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.443 million in July, well above the estimated 1.370 million and marking the strongest month since February. Much of this strength was driven in the multi-family sector, rising 9.1% month-on-month, while single-family permits were up a more modest 2.5%.

U.S. manufacturing output rose 0.2% month-over-month and 1.2% year-over-year in July, matching analyst expectations, while total industrial production in July rose 0.2% month-over-month and 1.1% year-over-year, slightly below expectations. While those headline readings don’t signify much excitement, there were some notable items of interest in the details. To start, what really stood out to me was the divergence in durables versus nondurables; durable manufacturing was up a strong 0.7% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, while nondurables were down 0.4% month-over-month and 1.6% year-over-year. Durables are a slightly larger segment of total U.S. manufacturing, making that strength rather meaningful. Part of this is driven by the ongoing investment in the tech sector, with computer and electronic products being the top standout with 1.9% month-over-month and 9.9% year-over-year growth. Motor vehicle and parts manufacturing provided a notable drag to the headline durable figures, falling 2.1% month-over-month, but the broad strength elsewhere offset some of that impact. Overall, today’s data is consistent with an expected trend of softer consumer-oriented goods production but ongoing strength in business investment and capital spending. It will be interesting to continue watching these diverging signals moving forward.

The U.A.E.’s Defense Ministry today said it had detected two ballistic missiles fired from Iran at their country, prompting the alert system to send fresh warnings to its people, though both of these missiles landed in the sea, one inside their territorial waters and one outside. Elsewhere in the region, the U.K.’s Maritime Trade Operations reported a vessel being hit by an unidentified projectile while exiting the Strait of Hormuz, roughly five nautical miles off the coast of Oman. Both the above fresh escalations follow harsher rhetoric coming from Iran, with Iranian Parliament Speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf today saying the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until the U.S. fulfills its commitments in the June memorandum of understanding. The rhetoric from the U.S. side has harshened as well, lowering market expectations for peace prospects, with President Trump today posting “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Coupled with the ongoing escalations between Russia and Ukraine, it appears the markets will catch no break from heightened risk in the geopolitical backdrop today.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 28

August 28 – New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes center stage today from the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, due to provide his address in the next hour. The market will surely be parsing over his words with a fine-tooth comb, but it’s worth keeping in mind that his stated goal is for the Fed to provide less forward guidance and play a less prominent role, allowing the trade to “play the ball, not the referee.” With that said, my own expectation is to hear largely hawkish language as we did following the July Fed meeting as Warsh doubled down on the Fed’s stated commitment to its elusive 2.0% inflation mandate, which may drive volatility in rate expectations in the short-term, but keep in mind that expectations softened notably in the month that followed his hawkish comments. Not much has fundamentally changed since the Fed’s July meeting: inflation remains above target and the economy continues to expand, but a weak July payrolls report has introduced more concern around the labor side of the dual mandate. Yesterday’s jobless claims did give some renewed signs of resilience in the labor market to potentially aid in providing a permission signal to move rates higher, but I still expect the Fed to emphasize the need for patience. There is obviously plenty more impactful data on both inflation and the labor market sitting between now and the Fed’s September meeting, so much of the focus may also be attempting to discern longer-term changes to Fed strategy and positioning moving forward instead of just their immediate next step.

Mike CastleFri, 28 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 27

August 27 – The tech sector is breathing a collective sigh of relief, with the tech heavy Nasdaq poised for the biggest gains of the major indexes to start the day after impressive earnings results from Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike after yesterday's close. This sigh of relief is also reflected in Wall Street’s fear index, with the VIX falling back below 15 for the first time this week. The dollar has slowly inched higher this week as it claws back portions of last week’s losses and is holding just above unchanged at the time of writing, trading just above the 99.16 level. Treasuries are quietly mixed to start the day, with 2-year yields down very slightly to trade at 4.222%, 10-year yields unchanged at 4.664%, and 30-year yields up slightly to trade at 5.188%. Crude oil is also just above unchanged to start the day, with nearby WTI up roughly 0.7% to trade near $82.50 while nearby Brent is up roughly 0.6% to trade near $87.50. The ags are largely mixed to start the day, with the wheat complex clinging to small gains while corn and soybeans are quietly lower.

Mike CastleThu, 27 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 26

August 26 – It’s a quiet day on Wall Street despite the tranche of data released today, with focus shifting to chip giant Nvidia’s earnings report due out after today’s close. The major stock indexes are all quietly lower at midday, down anywhere from 0.25% to 0.35% at the time of writing, while the VIX remains muted as it hovers near 15.6. The dollar has firmed through the morning, reflecting some additional hawkish sentiment after this morning’s inflation data, as it trades at 99.17, its highest level since last Wednesday’s selloff. Treasury yields are working higher as well, with 2-year yields up to 4.23%, 10-year yields up to 4.668%, and 30-year yields up to 5.186%. Crude oil has reversed course from this morning’s losses to now trade in the green amid rumblings of more escalations in the Black Sea region as well as a more bullish than expected D.O.E. report this morning, with nearby WTI now up 2.1% on the day to trade near $82.80 and nearby Brent up 0.6% to trade near $87.80. The ags are surging higher at midday, with the wheat complex now leading the way higher amid additional concerns regarding supply from the Black Sea following wire reports stating Putin is planning escalation with Ukraine, though details to this point are scarce.

Mike CastleWed, 26 Aug 2026, 16:59

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