Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 24

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Mon, 24 Aug 2026, 15:54

August 24 – The Dow Jones has broken into the green at midday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continuing to hang in the red, albeit off the morning lows. Traders are still anticipating this afternoon’s press conference with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to shape expectations for how these new measures could impact trade relations between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. The VIX remains up on the day but near the low-end of 2026’s range, now hovering just below 15.8 at the time of writing. The dollar remains quietly in the green on the day as it pushes to trade just above the 98.96 level. Treasuries remain mixed in a relatively quiet session, with 2-year yields still slightly higher as they trade just below 4.24% while 10-year yields fall below the 4.70% mark and 30-year yields trade just above 5.22%. Crude oil continues to hang in the red as the trade awaits this afternoon’s announcement, with nearby WTI now down 2.2% on the day to trade at $84.70 and nearby Brent down 4.0% to trade near $90.60. The ags have turned largely mixed at midday, with corn continuing to surge higher following Friday’s low Pro Farmer yield estimate, while soybeans have begun selling off more aggressively amid the relatively larger soybean yield print weighing on the supply side and concerns regarding the demand side of the equation relating to Chinese buying if we see more targeted measures announced.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.08 in July, almost entirely driven by a sharp reversal in consumption and housing indicators, while employment conditions actually improved. Meanwhile, June was revised notably higher to 0.06 after initially being reported at -0.02, largely due to sharp upward revisions on the production side, with the employment portion moving higher as well. However, it is worth noting June’s consumption and housing metrics were revised notably lower, adding to the negativity seen in July. Overall, the signal here is essentially economic growth slightly below trend, not a serious slowdown, but it will be worth keeping an eye on whether that changes moving forward.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today suggested there could be talks with Russia regarding commodity movement through the Black Sea, with the headline initially triggering a brief selloff in the wheat complex before largely bouncing back. Obviously, any material improvement in shipments through the Black Sea will require both sides to come to the table, which has proven very difficult, hence the skepticism in the market and subsequent bounce back. He did note that “three or four ships a day are entering and leaving Greater Odesa,” an interesting anecdote to keep in mind with visible activity being almost entirely absent following the escalations seen this summer. Local estimates for both Russian and Ukrainian exports in the near-term continue to be walked back amid the inability to move, but the real question is how much longer the effective closure lasts, especially with buyers likely needing to step forward sooner than later.

The next test for U.S. grain fundamental expectations will be what USDA does with corn and soybean ratings on this afternoon’s Crop Progress report, due out at 3:00 PM Central Time, as it will be interesting to see what, if any, influence last week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour has on today’s estimates. This is historically a time of year that we expect to see corn ratings decline as the crop matures, with the previous five-year average showing a 1% drop in good/excellent ratings for this week. If we see a more significant than expected decline, conditions-based yield models could see a drop in expectations, while if they hold roughly steady, yield expectations may rise. On the soybean side, the previous five-year average for this week is a -0.2% decline in good/excellent ratings, with the traditional seasonal decline coming slightly later as the crop nears maturity, changing color and dropping leaves. Pro Farmer’s estimate suggests that sizable yield potential is still there, especially with the wetter shift in August, but it will be interesting to see USDA’s line of thinking.

USDA inspected 51.0 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending August 20^th, coming in below even the low-end estimate and marking the lowest weekly corn inspections seen since late January. Regardless of the one-week slowdown, cumulative corn inspections of 3.242 billion bushels remain comfortably ahead of the seasonal pace needed to surpass USDA’s current 3.400-billion-bushel export target after uninspected shipments are included, while cumulative sales as of last Thursday’s report already sit 54 million bushels above said target. Conversely, weekly soybean export inspections rose to a six-week high at 15.5 million bushels, near the top-end of the expected range with Egypt being the featured destination. Perhaps what was even more impressive was the fact that weekly shipments were this strong without China being included. On a cumulative basis, soybean inspections have reached 1.488 billion bushels, also on track to surpass USDA’s current 1.520-billion-bushel export target. Weekly wheat inspections also came in toward the top-end of their expected range at 15.6 million bushels, with a handful of Asian nations making up the bulk of the total (Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Bangladesh). The strength came primarily from white wheat shipments, coming in at 9.3 million bushels, the highest weekly total seen since last September. It’s interesting to note this was the same week last year that we saw the biggest white wheat inspections of the 2025/26 marketing year.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 28

August 28 – New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes center stage today from the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, due to provide his address in the next hour. The market will surely be parsing over his words with a fine-tooth comb, but it’s worth keeping in mind that his stated goal is for the Fed to provide less forward guidance and play a less prominent role, allowing the trade to “play the ball, not the referee.” With that said, my own expectation is to hear largely hawkish language as we did following the July Fed meeting as Warsh doubled down on the Fed’s stated commitment to its elusive 2.0% inflation mandate, which may drive volatility in rate expectations in the short-term, but keep in mind that expectations softened notably in the month that followed his hawkish comments. Not much has fundamentally changed since the Fed’s July meeting: inflation remains above target and the economy continues to expand, but a weak July payrolls report has introduced more concern around the labor side of the dual mandate. Yesterday’s jobless claims did give some renewed signs of resilience in the labor market to potentially aid in providing a permission signal to move rates higher, but I still expect the Fed to emphasize the need for patience. There is obviously plenty more impactful data on both inflation and the labor market sitting between now and the Fed’s September meeting, so much of the focus may also be attempting to discern longer-term changes to Fed strategy and positioning moving forward instead of just their immediate next step.

Mike CastleFri, 28 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 27

August 27 – The tech sector is breathing a collective sigh of relief, with the tech heavy Nasdaq poised for the biggest gains of the major indexes to start the day after impressive earnings results from Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike after yesterday's close. This sigh of relief is also reflected in Wall Street’s fear index, with the VIX falling back below 15 for the first time this week. The dollar has slowly inched higher this week as it claws back portions of last week’s losses and is holding just above unchanged at the time of writing, trading just above the 99.16 level. Treasuries are quietly mixed to start the day, with 2-year yields down very slightly to trade at 4.222%, 10-year yields unchanged at 4.664%, and 30-year yields up slightly to trade at 5.188%. Crude oil is also just above unchanged to start the day, with nearby WTI up roughly 0.7% to trade near $82.50 while nearby Brent is up roughly 0.6% to trade near $87.50. The ags are largely mixed to start the day, with the wheat complex clinging to small gains while corn and soybeans are quietly lower.

Mike CastleThu, 27 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 26

August 26 – It’s a quiet day on Wall Street despite the tranche of data released today, with focus shifting to chip giant Nvidia’s earnings report due out after today’s close. The major stock indexes are all quietly lower at midday, down anywhere from 0.25% to 0.35% at the time of writing, while the VIX remains muted as it hovers near 15.6. The dollar has firmed through the morning, reflecting some additional hawkish sentiment after this morning’s inflation data, as it trades at 99.17, its highest level since last Wednesday’s selloff. Treasury yields are working higher as well, with 2-year yields up to 4.23%, 10-year yields up to 4.668%, and 30-year yields up to 5.186%. Crude oil has reversed course from this morning’s losses to now trade in the green amid rumblings of more escalations in the Black Sea region as well as a more bullish than expected D.O.E. report this morning, with nearby WTI now up 2.1% on the day to trade near $82.80 and nearby Brent up 0.6% to trade near $87.80. The ags are surging higher at midday, with the wheat complex now leading the way higher amid additional concerns regarding supply from the Black Sea following wire reports stating Putin is planning escalation with Ukraine, though details to this point are scarce.

Mike CastleWed, 26 Aug 2026, 16:59

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