Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 27

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Wed, 27 Aug 2025, 16:13

August 27 – The S&P 500 is flirting with another all-time high at mid-day as the major U.S. stock indexes push higher yet again and the VIX remains muted below the 15 level. The market gets a bit of a break from major economic data today before picking up again tomorrow with revised Q2 GDP and weekly jobless claims in focus, followed by an update on PCE and consumer sentiment on Friday. With economic data relatively limited, much of the market’s focus is on upcoming earnings from Nvidia after the bell, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq seeing the lightest gains of the major indexes at the time of writing in anticipation. The dollar is attempting to wipe out yesterday's losses, up 0.2% on the day to trade near 98.43 at midday. The spread between 10-and-2-year treasuries is continuing to widen, with 10-year yields pushing higher to trade above 4.27% while 2-year yields fall below 3.65%, a 5-month low. Crude oil has rebounded following a more bullish than expected D.O.E. report this morning, with nearby WTI breaking above the $64 level briefly but trading around $63.90 at the time of writing. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains mostly quietly lower but both live and feeder cattle futures up aggressively again today as they both push to fresh all-time highs, a very common theme in 2025.

China’s industrial profits fell by 1.7% year-over-year between January and July, a slight improvement from the 1.8% decline in the first half of 2025 but marking the third straight negative reading (and eighth negative reading in the last twelve months) as the world’s second-largest economy continues to struggle amid ongoing deflationary pressures and trade tensions with the U.S., their top export destination. By sector, the biggest drops were seen in coal mining (-55.2%), oil and gas (-12.6%), chemicals (-8.0%), and textiles (-6.5%). Elsewhere, the biggest gains were seen in China’s agriculture sector (+14.5%), electrical machinery and equipment (+11.7%), non-ferrous metals (+6.9%), and computers and communications (+6.7%). China’s top negotiator, Li Chenggang, is expected to meet with deputy-level U.S. government officials tomorrow and Friday, though no meeting has reportedly been set with his counterpart, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, thus far as this visit is not being considered part of formal negotiations. Still, markets will be keeping an eye on the results of these meetings given the wide-ranging implications for the commodity sector and the global economy more broadly.

U.S. tariffs on India officially doubled to 50% today, taking effect as planned following a failure to reach an agreement to postpone. However, some of the largest sectors of Indian exports to the U.S. are exempt from these tariffs, most notably pharmaceuticals, electronics (smartphones, semiconductors, etc.), and energy-related exports. This cushions the blow to an extent, but expectations are for just over half of India’s exports to the U.S. to be subject to the new tariffs, with the textiles, footwear, furniture, and jewelry sectors among the most impacted. For context, the U.S. Treasury Department reported the total value of U.S. imports from India at roughly $87.4 billion in 2024, making them our 10^th largest source of imports. The additional 25% tariffs are a response to India’s ongoing large-scale purchases of Russian energy products (namely crude oil), but the country doesn’t appear to have any plans to stop these purchases, with India’s junior Foreign Minister Kirti Vardhan Singh stating, “our concern is our energy security, and we will continue to purchase energy sources from whichever country benefits us.” Other top buyers of Russian energy products, like China and Turkey, have avoided such secondary tariffs thus far.

U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 2.392 million barrels in the week ending 8/22, sharper than market expectations of a 1.863-million-barrel decline, bringing total stocks (excluding the SPR) to 418.29 million, a 9-week low. Refinery utilization fell by 2.0% week-over-week, much sharper than the 0.4% decline expected and marking the biggest weekly drop seen in the U.S. since weather-related dips back in January. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.236 million barrels, not as sharp as the expected 2.154-million-barrel draw but still bringing total gasoline stocks to their lowest level of 2025 at 222.23 million barrels, though this follows the typical seasonal pattern at this time. Distillate stocks saw the biggest surprise of the week, falling by 1.786 million barrels week-over-week, a huge miss compared to the average analyst estimate of a 0.885-million-barrel build. Despite the unexpected weekly decline, the current stocks of 114.24 million barrels still represents a notable improvement from recent tightness, up 11.1% from the 20-year low hit back in early July following strong builds over the last few weeks.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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