Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Mon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence – Senior Grains Analyst

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

A busy week for economic data kicked off this morning with S&P Global’s U.S. Manufacturing PMI just topping trade estimates and last month at a 53.9 reading, while ISM Manufacturing for the month came in at 55.6, up from the 53.9 trade estimate and 53.3 for the month prior and the highest gauge figure since May 2022. It was their seventh straight reading above the 50 level that indicates growth. ISM’s production gauge hit its highest level since late 2021 while their employment measure registered its best since September 2023. On the flip side, U.S. Construction Spending came in at -0.1% for June, below the average 0.2% trade estimate and a flat figure in May (itself revised a tick lower this month). Interestingly, construction spending on data centers rose 7.0% on the month and 45.8% year-over-year, to an adjusted annual rate of a whopping $68.3 billion.

Ukraine used a new type of naval drone to strike Russian radar systems in Crimea this morning, another increase in Ukraine’s drone technology as their attacks and counterattacks gain steam as of late. On the Middle East front, President Trump is still claiming a meeting with Iran later today; six Saudi-owned tankers were reported as diverting around Africa due to Houthi threats, adding at least two weeks to those ships’ journeys.

StoneX Brazil raised their 2025/26 safrinha corn production estimate this morning from 107.5 to 110.7 MMT yesterday thanks a sharp increase in yield. Their initial estimate for 2026/27 soybean output came in at 183.1 MMT, up from 182.6 MMT last season; total corn production for ‘26/27 came in at 143.0 MMT, up from 139.0 MMT. First-crop corn output for next season was pegged at 28.7 MMT, up from 28.6 MMT last season.

Another 624,150 tonnes of daily flash soybean sales were reported by the USDA this morning, to China and “unknown”; that brings total flash sales since the last weekly export sales report (week ending July 23) to 1.266 million tonne, shown below on top of that last official total to bring new-crop (2026/27) sales to 8.735 MMT. That’s the fastest pace of the last four years, though only around half of the record number on this comparable date in 2014. Total sales to China and “unknown” to date would be around 6.88 million tonnes, or 253 million bushels – a decent early pace to hit their commitment to import 919 mbu of U.S. soybeans in the 2026/27 marketing year.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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