Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 10

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 10 Feb 2023, 17:55

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

February 10 - Stocks are mixed at midday, with the tech sector getting hit again by rising Treasury yields, while Dow components firm into midday. Treasury yields and the dollar both rose following the release of data from the Department of Labor that revised the December consumer price index data. That CPI data originally showed a 0.1% decline month-on-month in inflation at the consumer level, but the revised data shows a 0.1% increase. The November CPI was also revised to show 0.2% gains month-on-month, up from the 0.1% originally reported, with October rising to 0.5%, up from 0.4% originally. In other words, inflation is a bit more of a problem that previously believed, which may result in the Federal Reserve being more hawkish than previously believed. January CPI data is expected to be released on Tuesday of next week, with analysts expecting 0.4% gains month-on-month for both the headline and core inflation numbers. The VIX spent the bulk of the morning trading between 21 & 22, reflecting fear levels on Wall Street that are relatively low, but they are still the highest in a month. The dollar index is trading higher near 103.7, while yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading at five-week highs near 3.74%. Money flow is generally positive for the commodity sector - particularly the food and energy commodities today. Crude oil prices are 1% - 2% higher, while the grain and oilseed markets are generally 1% to 3% higher.

Today's strength in the grain and oilseed markets is led by Kansas City wheat, as shown below, but with participation virtually across the board. The market has taken out virtually all of the Ukraine war premium from many of the commodity markets, as we approach the February 24 anniversary of the Russian invasion. Anniversary dates matter within Russian culture, spurring some talk that Russia may be gearing up for a spring offensive to start on that date. Reports from Ukraine suggest that 71 missiles were fired into Ukraine at major infrastructure targets today, with unconfirmed rumors that missiles may have been spotted near Romanian airspace. The funds are believed to have big short positions in wheat coming into today, but we really don't know the size since a computer hack has withheld data CFTC needs for reporting positions for a couple of weeks. Add to this OPEC's mention of $100 crude oil, and money flow into the food and energy commodities spiked today, turning charts in some cases such as wheat, triggering additional Algo buying that amplified gains. Markets are driven by emotions as much as fundamentals, so we'll have to see how the headlines continue to feed those emotions in the days ahead and whether that triggers more short-covering or outright building of ownership again in these commodities.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 66.4 for February, in today's preliminary report. That's up from 64.9 the previous month. The index is now 6% above year ago levels, but it is still 14% below levels seen two years prior before inflation became a significant issue. High prices remain a primary concern of consumers questioned in the survey, with sentiment still more than 22% below its long-term historical average. The future expectations index actually dropped slightly this month on fears of future challenges in the jobs sector as the Fed fights inflation. Most of this month's gains in the headline number were in the current conditions index, which rose more than 4 points to 72.6. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose this month to 4.2%, up from 3.9% in January.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

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