Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 12

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 12 Feb 2026, 16:22

February 12 - Stocks opened higher, but then turned lower through the morning, in part due to disappointing housing data, but also ahead of tomorrow's key inflation data release. The VIX firmed to trade near 20, reflecting rising nerves on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 96.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped to trade near 4.13%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.47%. Crude oil prices are dropping as well, but grain and oilseed prices are posting healthy gains. Speculative short covering related to turning chart signals lifted wheat, while the soybeans also led the complex higher on this morning's story out of China that raised hopes for more sales to that country.

Existing home sales fell to 3.91 million units on an annualized basis in January, down from 4.27 million the previous month, and below analyst expectations of 4.200 million. The January number is down 8.4% from December and down 4.4% from the previous year. The National Association of Realtors put much of the blame on adverse weather in January, which featured extreme cold and significant snow and ice across a good portion of the eastern part of the country. The NAR stated that it's really difficult to evaluate the drop in home sales due to these weather factors. It notes that affordability is actually improving, with its Housing Affordability Index at its highest level since March 2022. It notes that wage gains are exceeding house price gains across the country, while mortgage rates are lower than year ago levels. However, it also notes that the supply of existing homes on the market is very low, with many homeowners simply not willing to give up their current low mortgage rates.

Exporters sold 81.5 million bushels of corn in the week ending February 5, as shown below, which was a record for this week of the year. In addition, they also sold 10.4 million bushels of soybeans, 17.9 million bushels of wheat, and 10.3 million bushels of grain sorghum. The first thing I note here is the strong corn sales, led by 24.3 million bushels going to Japan, 13.3 million bushels going to South Korea, and 10.8 million bushels going to Colombia. This brings marketing year to date corn export sales to a record for the date 2.394 billion bushels, up 566 million bushels or 31% from the previous year's pace. This year's USDA export target is a robust record 3.3 billion bushels, but the above total for the year to date still exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit that target by 244 million bushels.

The next thing I noticed is the weakness in the week's soybean export sales. The above weekly total was the smallest for the marketing year thus far. It did include 10.5 million bushels of soybeans sold to China, but 7.4 million bushels of that total was already on the books under previous sales to "unknown destinations." USDA is simply confirming business that we already knew was to China. Otherwise, U.S. prices are too expensive relative to cheaper new crop Brazilian supplies. Marketing year to date soybean export sales total just 1.270 billion bushels, the lowest since the 2019-'20 marketing year when nearly two-thirds of China's hog herd had died from African Swine Fever. That total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 24 million bushels, and that gap is growing again. That "may" change if China buys another 8 million metric tons (294 million bushels) as President Trump recently suggested. Such a purchase would be for political, rather than economic, reasons as I outlined in this morning's Commentary. I also wanted to note that marketing year to date wheat export sales exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 72 million bushels, up 2 million bushels from the previous week.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

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Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

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Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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