Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 24 Feb 2026, 16:40

February 24 – It’s looking like turnaround Tuesday on Wall Street, with the major stock indexes all in the green at mid-day, rebounding from the sharp losses to start the week yesterday while the VIX cools notably, hovering around 19.8 after pushing above the 22-mark to start the session. Today also marks the beginning of U.S. collections on the new global tariffs announced following the Supreme Court’s decision last week—however, at a 10% rate instead of the higher 15% rate announced over the weekend. It’s not fully clear why the new tariffs are beginning at 10%, though it does sound like the plan is to eventually increase them to 15%; perhaps we’ll learn more from tonight’s State of the Union address. The dollar is having a quiet session, hovering just above unchanged around 97.76 at the time of writing. Treasuries are having a similarly quiet session, with 10-year yields trading at 4.03% and 2-year yields trading at 3.46%, both just a tick above unchanged. Crude oil started the day higher again as geopolitical risks remain elevated, though nearby WTI has fallen through the morning to trade slightly in the red around the $66/barrel mark at mid-day. The ags are largely mixed, with soybeans leading the grains & oilseeds higher while the livestock sector is mostly in the green, led higher by lean hogs.

It’s been four years to the day since Russia launched their full-scale invasion of Ukraine. What was originally pitched by the Kremlin as a “special military operation” that would last only days has turned into a yearslong, grinding war of attrition that has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions, with peace prospects remaining dim despite recent talks. The European Union had planned to mark the war’s anniversary with the announcement of a package including new Russian sanctions and more financial support for Ukraine, but Hungary vetoed the measure, highlighting the potential for fracturing support within the bloc. Hungary’s objections are related to Ukraine’s blocking of Russian oil flows to their country via the Druzhba pipeline, with fellow E.U. member Slovakia expressing similar sentiment due to their own reliance on the same pipeline. These tensions are unlikely to dissipate in the near-term, however, given Ukraine’s attack on the Druzhba pipeline’s critical Kaleikino pumping station yesterday located deep within Russia, nearly 750 miles (~1,200 KM) from the Ukrainian border. While much of the recent focus on geopolitical risks in the crude oil (and fertilizer) market has centered on the rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, it’s important to keep in mind what’s at stake for the same sectors in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Furthermore, these conflicts continue to feel more connected due to the alliances and ongoing economic ties between Iran, Russia, and China.

This interconnection only complicates peace prospects in both theatres, as well as trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies, the U.S. and China. With Lunar New Year festivities now wrapped up in China, the soybean market will be keeping a close eye on needed confirmation of fresh Chinese purchases in the wake of their alleged commitment to purchase another 8 million metric tons (~294 million bushels) of U.S. soybeans after achieving their previously stated 12 MMT (~441 million bushels) target. It’s now been 20 days since that announcement, but we’ve only seen one daily flash sale announcement of soybeans to China in that span—264k MT (9.7 million bushels) back on 2/9. Much of the recent rally in the soybean market has been driven by large-scale speculative buying from managed money, similar to what we saw this fall in response to the initial handshake trade deal, but those longs may eventually get nervous if no confirmation is seen, especially given the timing of an expected record Brazilian soy crop bringing notably cheaper beans to the market in the near-term.

Home prices continue to lag inflation at the consumer level, with this morning’s updates from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and S&P Case-Shiller showing single-family home prices rising 1.8% and 1.4% year-over-year, respectively, in December. This represents a slight dip from November’s upwardly revised 2.1% (originally 1.9%) year-over-year gain in the FHFA index and matches the 1.4% November rise for the S&P Case-Shiller index. Regionally speaking, the largest gains were in the Chicago (+5.3%), New York (+5.1%), and Cleveland (+4.0%) markets, while notable declines were seen in some of the former pandemic hot spots, with Tampa (-2.9%), Dallas (-1.5%), Miami (-1.5%), and Phoenix (-1.5%) leading the way down. At the same time, the CPI (consumer level inflation) showed a 2.4% year-over-year rise in its latest release, with the PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation metric) showing a 2.9% year-over-year rise last week. This loss in real home values is worth keeping an eye on moving forward.

Consumer confidence blew past expectations in this morning’s February reading from the Conference Board, coming in above even the top-end estimate at 91.2 (highest estimate was 90.5, average was 87.0) and marking the best reading for the index since October. Additionally, January was revised notably higher, now sitting at 89.0 versus the nearly 12-year low of 84.5 initially reported. This improvement was driven largely by improving consumer confidence in the future, with the Expectations Index climbing 4.8 points month-on-month to reach 72.0, with expectations for future incomes seeing the strongest gains. Consumer sentiment on the labor market improved from its recent weakness as well, with 15.7% anticipating more jobs to be available (versus 14.8% in January) and 26.1% anticipating fewer jobs (versus 28.7% in January). In general, today’s update from Conference Board follows the same trend seen in last week’s update from the University of Michigan which saw headline consumer sentiment reach its strongest reading since August.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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