Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 25

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 25 Feb 2026, 18:25

February 25 - Stocks continued to build on overnight strength following last night's patriotic State of the Union address. That positivity will need to be backed up with solid economic data, but for now it's providing modest support ahead of Nvidia's earnings report. That report could also have a significant impact going forward. The VIX continued to slip lower through the morning, trading near 18 at midday, while the dollar index traded near 97.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.03%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.47%. Crude oil prices are slipping lower midday, while the grain and oilseeds are again mixed. Wheat prices continue under modest pressure at midday, with weather forecasts improving for the dry Southern Plains, while soybeans lead corn higher. Soymeal prices captured the attention of end users today when prices broke above an area of chart resistance, triggering additional buying. Soymeal demand continues to exceed expectations; both domestically and on the export market.

The survey of business uncertainty is conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The February survey revealed that businesses expect year-ahead sales growth to reach 3.72%, down slightly from 3.73% previously, but still well above pre-pandemic levels. Year-ahead employment growth is expected to reach 4.33%, up from 4.29% previously. I'm more encouraged by the positive employment growth projections, considering the softness of the jobs sector over the past year, and considering the effect of AI and the smaller job force due to the change in immigration policy.

Ethanol stocks remained unchanged at 25.6 million barrels in the week ending February 20, but that is down from 27.6 million barrels in the same week last year. Ethanol production remained strong at 1,113K barrels per day last week, down a bit from 1,118K bpd the previous week, but notably up from 1,081K bpd in the same week last year. Estimated corn use for fuel ethanol production last week totaled 110.7 million bushels, down from 111.1 million bushels the previous week, but up from 105.0 million bushels the previous year. Estimated marketing year to date corn use for fuel ethanol totals 2.661 billion bushels, up 19 million bushels from the previous year's pace at this point in the year.

President Trump stirred market excitement on February 4 when he posted on social media that China was considering his request to purchase another 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, which would equate to 294 million bushels. Chinese crushers have zero economic incentive to do so, as illustrated by the graphic below that shows that crush margins would be deeply in the red if they did so. As such, the very idea that China would consider such purchases indicates the cost that it "may" willing to pay to get greater access to the U.S. consumer, foreign investment, and high value U.S. made chips. The soybeans would continue to be purchased by China's state buyer, placed in the reserve to rotate with other older beans auctioned off at a discount to crushers, if this deal goes through.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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