Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 28

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 28 Feb 2023, 16:25

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

February 28 - Stocks are mixed at mid-day, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both in the red slightly, while the Nasdaq clings to small gains at the time of writing. The VIX has cooled through the morning to fall back below the 21 level, currently trading near 20.8. The dollar fell hard to start the morning but has rebounded to approach unchanged near the 104.6 level. Treasury yields are also hovering near unchanged, with 10-year yields trading near 3.94% while 2-year yields trade just below 4.8%. Crude oil is rallying this morning, with the nearby WTI contract pushing above $77 to trade at its highest level in a week. The ags are mixed, with the soy complex down hard while the other grains attempt to hold on near the unchanged mark and livestock futures push mostly higher.

U.S. housing prices fell again in December, though by less than expected, with the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index coming in at 392.1, down 0.3 points from November but above market expectations of a drop to 390. Despite major slowdowns seen in many of the housing sector's economic indicators, prices have held up surprisingly well. December's 392.1 marks the lowest housing prices seen since April 2022, but represents just a 1.1% decline from the peak made back in June as values have largely stagnated. In year-over-year terms, housing prices were still up 6.6% from December 2021, though this is the lowest annual increase in a given month since June 2020.

The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to struggle, with several economic indicators being released this morning and showing worse than expected performance. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which measures the conditions of the manufacturing sector for Virginia, Maryland, most of West Virginia, and both Carolinas, fell hard to a reading of -16 in February. This is a drop from January's -11 and marks the largest contractionary reading for the index since the initial fallout of the COVID pandemic in the spring of 2020. Excluding the pandemic-driven dip, this would be the worst reading for the index since 2009, as the U.S. economy was battling through severe recession. Elsewhere, the Chicago PMI declined further in February, dropping to 43.6 from the 44.3 seen in January despite market expectations of a rebound back to the 45 level. This is the second consecutive monthly decline and the sixth consecutive month of contraction (reading below 50) in business activity in the Chicago region. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, which will be released tomorrow morning, will give the market a broader look at the health of the country's manufacturing sector as a whole, though signs are pointing to more negative readings.

The services sector received better news than the manufacturing side, with the Richmond Fed's February Services Index improving slightly from the month prior, though remaining in contractionary territory at -3. Regardless, this is still the second consecutive monthly improvement from the -12 hit back in December, though the index still hasn't seen an expansionary reading since May 2022 as struggles continue. The Dallas Fed also released their February Services Index this morning, showing an improvement to a reading of -9.3 versus the -15 seen in January. This is also the second consecutive monthly improvement, though remaining solidly in contractionary territory for the ninth consecutive month. The ongoing tightness in U.S. labor markets has taken a heavy toll on the service sector, which is very sensitive to wage inflation.

U.S. consumer sentiment also took a hit in February, with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) falling to a reading of 102.9, down from January's revised 106.0 (previously 107.1) and well below expectations of a rebound to a 108.5 reading. This is the worst outlook since November, though still well above the most recent low of 95.7 seen back in July. As fears of a more aggressive Fed continue to grow, it will be interesting to keep an eye on the impact at the consumer level. It's become clear that the U.S. economy isn't out of the woods yet in the fight against inflation, but it remains to be seen how much pain the Fed will be willing to inflict along the way.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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