Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for January 25

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 25 Jan 2023, 17:09

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

January 25 - Stocks are notably lower at midday, but they're well off their session lows, and in some cases, near session highs. Disappointing guidance in Microsoft's earnings report weighed on the tech sector, setting the stage for today's early selloff. Yet, the VIX is trading below 20, reflecting little panic on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 101.9, or just barely above eight-month lows. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.47%. Crude oil prices are up roughly 1% as they again target a possible test of resistance at the 50-day moving average on the charts. Grain and oilseed prices are mixed to mostly higher at midday.

Wheat prices first fell notably, and then recovered to add to gains again, following reports that a Turkish ship was hit with a missile in the port near Kherson earlier today. The markets are becoming less sensitive to headlines coming out of Ukraine - almost desensitized by the daily flow of news that does more to confuse traders rather than to provide clarity to their impact on the commodities. Even so, wheat prices remain the strength of the grain and oilseed complex today amid efforts by India to cool red-hot food inflation costs. Probably the biggest concern in the wheat market is the massive short positions built by fund managers, with no other natural sellers in the marketplace right now that could offset a big short-covering rally by the funds if something stimulated them to exits those positions. Corn prices lack a compelling news story, but world supplies remain snug with Ukraine limited in its supplies, and the Argentina crop cut short by drought. Soybean prices fell briefly below the ascending channel that has contained them, but selling interest dried up at the 50-day moving average for the March contract.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index firmed to 76.5 this month, up from 76.0 the previous month. The index firmed largely due to an increase in confidence in the Asian markets. The Asian index rose 5.7 points to 92.5 this month. The North American index rose just a very modest 0.7 points to 73.1, while the European index fell 0.3 points to 102.2. The numbers tell us that the greatest confidence among the three regions continues to be ironically in the European markets, with the North American markets trailing the other two, although Asia is catching up with Europe. Meanwhile, the U.S. markets continue to be obsessed with a fear that the Federal Reserve is going to kill our economy.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 0.5 million to 448.5 million barrels in the week ending January 20, putting them 3% above the five-year average for mid-January. Gasoline stocks increased by 1.8 million barrels, but they are still 8% below seasonal levels, and this is a slow demand time of year. Distillate stocks fell by 0.5 million barrels, putting them 20% below levels typically seen in mid-January. Ethanol stocks rose to their highest level since the first of April last year at 25.1 million barrels, up from 23.4 million the previous week, and up from 24.5 million barrels in the same week last year. The production of ethanol firmed to 1,012K barrels per day last week, up slightly from 1,008K bpd the previous week, but down from 1,035K bpd in the same week last year. The production of ethanol utilized an estimated 102.0 million bushels of corn in the week ending January 20, as shown in the graphic below, up from 101.6 million the previous week, but down from 105. million the previous year. Estimated marketing year-to-date corn use for the production of ethanol totals 2.002 billion bushels, down 132 million or 6.2% from the previous year's pace. That leaves us roughly 25 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year, reflecting the lost production time we had in late December due to weather problems.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
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Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

Grains & Oilseeds

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