Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for January 26

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 26 Jan 2026, 17:31

January 26 – Stocks are firmly in the green at mid-day after showing weakness prior to the open, with the VIX falling notably from overnight highs around 17.4 to now trade below the 16 level at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the dollar continues its recent selloff after sharp losses Thursday and Friday, dropping to a four-month low this morning just below 97. Treasuries are slightly weaker at mid-day, with 10-year yields trading at 4.215% and 2-year yields at 3.594%. Crude oil is also in the red after trading up to a 12-day high in the overnight session, with nearby WTI hovering around $60.80/barrel at the time of writing. The ags are mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly lower while the protein sector is mostly higher, led by feeder cattle futures, though off from morning highs.

New orders for durable goods jumped 5.3% month-on-month in November, marking a solid rebound from the 2.1% decline seen in October and blowing past analyst estimates of a more moderate 3.2% month-on-month increase while also representing a six-month high. Much of the strength was driven by a surge in transportation equipment orders, rising 14.7% month-on-month in November after a 6.3% drop in October, mostly due to a huge uptick in orders for airplanes. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.5% month-on-month, still stronger than analyst estimates of a 0.3% gain and marking a notable jump from the 0.1% rise seen in October. Drilling down to orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, often seen as a proxy for business capital spending plans, the strength was still clear, rising 0.7% month-on-month versus estimates of a much more moderate 0.3% rise. This also looks like a bigger increase given October being revised down to 0.3% from the 0.5% increase initially reported. Overall, this continues to point to a surprisingly resilient U.S. economy—good news on its surface, but bad news for traders looking for a more dovish Fed.

The U.S. manufacturing sector also showed resilience with this morning’s Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index improving to -1.2 in January, reversing course from two consecutive monthly declines that saw December make a six-month low at -11.3 (revised down slightly from the initial -10.9). While still in contractionary territory, it’s worth pointing out that January’s -1.2 is the best reading for this index since July, with only 3 months of expansionary readings being seen since the start of 2023. The rebound was quite broad, with the Production Index rising notably to 11.2 from the -3.0 seen in December, New Orders rising to 18.0 from 11.8 in the month prior, Capacity Utilization ticked up to 12.0 from 7.1 in December, and Shipments improved to 12.0 from -10.5 previously. Company outlooks improved as well, returning to positive territory at 2.9 after being firmly negative at -12.3 last month. As with the largely positive durable goods data outlined above, this points to a healthier-than-expected U.S. economy, pointing to a lack of need for rate cuts in the near-term despite the ongoing political pressure, likely to dominate headlines in mid-2026 when Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends.

Weekly corn export inspections rose to a 5-week high at 59.5 million bushels in the week ending January 22^nd, continuing to maintain record strength as cumulative ‘25/’26 inspections now sit at an all-time high for the week of 1.238 billion bushels, up 53.3% year-over-year. Mexico was once again the featured destination, with cumulative inspections there totaling 386.9 million bushels, up 23.6% year-over-year and also maintaining a record pace amid the ongoing border closure due to New World Screwworm. Meanwhile, USDA inspected 48.7 million bushels of soybeans for export, in line with market expectations, with the vast majority going to China. Cumulative ‘25/’26 soybean inspections now total 759.4 million bushels, down 37.5% versus the same time last year but now marking only a seven-year low pace, markedly better than the worst pace seen in decades for much of the marketing year. Wheat inspections were also in line with market expectations at 12.9 million bushels, with South Korea the featured destination. Cumulative ‘25/’26 wheat inspections of 600.1 million bushels are up 18.2% year-over-year and continue to represent the hottest pace in nine years. Milo (sorghum) inspections came in at 5.0 million bushels, marking a four-week low but still coming in roughly double the previous five-year average for the week as the recent strength continues following the return of Chinese demand. As with soybeans, China was the featured destination for milo exports for the week, with cumulative totals now at 51.4 million bushels, still trailing last year by 5.7% and maintaining the slowest pace in three years, though improving notably in recent weeks.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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