Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 19

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 19 Jul 2022, 16:26

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

July 19 - Equities are again rallying through the morning on strength in travel and tech stocks after losing steam into the close yesterday afternoon. The VIX has fallen to trade near 24.4, while the U.S. dollar is falling to a roughly two week low, trading near 106.5. Yields on 10-year treasuries are trading just above unchanged, hanging on near 3% again. Commodities began the day with a reversal from yesterday's gains, though nearby WTI crude oil has rallied back to trade near $103/barrel, while the ags are mostly lower, save for Chicago wheat.

Egypt's GASC canceled their wheat tender today, citing prices coming in too high, after seeking offers from the U.S., Canada, Argentina, Brazil, and Australia for last half September through first half November shipment. The lowest offer received was for U.S. soft red wheat, putting support under Chicago wheat futures despite the broader grain market selloff. Egypt is still reportedly seeking private offers despite canceling the tender, meaning U.S. wheat sales could still be in play, though it remains to be seen what they will do.

Russia's bombardment of Ukraine's Black Sea port cities has continued to escalate despite momentum towards re-opening said ports to the export of grains and other ag products. Mykolaiv, Ukraine's #2 port city for ag exports, has been subject to a sizeable number of strikes since talks began this spring, with multiple export terminals being targeted and sustaining heavy damage. Mykolaiv was reportedly also hit with cluster bombs again this week, as they were early in the war. Odesa, Ukraine's top port for agricultural products, was also struck with Russian missiles this week, hitting residential areas of the city. Although Russia aims to be viewed in a positive light by taking part in these negotiations and allowing exports through the Black Sea to resume to help alleviate global food security concerns, their continued destruction of the cities in question is telling of their true motives. Despite the obvious security concerns in doing so, Ukraine is staring down a severe grain storage crisis with no space for their upcoming harvest, and may be forced to take the risk. Ukrainian farmers and grain traders are reportedly finding space wherever possible, converting livestock buildings, sheds, etc. into makeshift storage facilities, as well as stepping up the use of ag bags. Although these strategies can help alleviate the storage issues in the short-term, it leaves the grain open to developing quality issues if left in temporary storage for too long, which could create a whole new round of headaches.

In a surprise ruling, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) voted yesterday to not impose tariffs on UAN imported from Russia and Trinidad & Tobago, the traditional top two suppliers of UAN to the U.S. Fertilizer prices have skyrocketed from historical levels in recent years due to a multitude of factors, peaking after the invasion of Ukraine sparked fear of lost Russian supplies. Despite the initial fear, Russian tons have found homes in a variety of places around the world, including the U.S. In fact, Russia was the top supplier of urea to the U.S. in the month of May, supplying their third-highest single month amount of urea to the U.S. on record. This move looks to open competition in order to keep domestic fertilizer prices lower as the current inflationary environment drives prices of everything higher, though it comes at the ire of major U.S. producer, CF Industries.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
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Meats & Livestock
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