Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 7

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 07 Jul 2026, 17:24

July 7 - AI worries raised their head again on Wall Street today, while a third strike on a ship in 24 hours in the Strait of Hormuz added to concerns as well. Stocks are mostly lower at midday, but the VIX is still trading below 16, suggesting that there's little panic on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading firmer near 101.0 at midday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.53%, rising to nearly a four-week high today, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%, with the yield curve slowly steepening once again. WTI crude oil is trading near $71 per barrel at midday, while Brent trades near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed to firmer on Chinese buying rumors.

There were more rumors today of China kicking the tires in the soybean, corn and soft wheat markets, but weather played a role today as well. The European model has been hot all along, but largely wrong. However, today's midday model run saw the American GFS model shift much hotter for the 6- to 15-day period - especially later in the period - trending toward the European model. Much of the U.S. corn crop is expected to pollinate in the July 10 - 31 time period, increasing the risk of reduced yields. This would be highly unusual for a strong El Nino year, but not impossible. As such, the risk must be respected. A graphic showing this week's U.S. corn condition index score compared to previous year's in the same week is seen below, along with their respective final yields.

A third tanker was attacked by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz within the past 24 hours. This one was hit very near where the previous two were near the exit to the Strait near the southern coast of Oman. Meanwhile, concerns remain that the LNG tanker hit earlier today is at risk of exploding after being hit, due to a fire in its engine room. The crew is being evacuated. A Saudi-flagged tanker was reported to be damaged off Oman's coast as well, but the cause is not immediately know. Another Liberia-flagged tanker reportedly changed its course when Iran ordered it to do so, shifting from the U.S. prescribed path along Oman's coast to the Iran chosen path along its coast. Iran is not only "poking the bear" in the United States, but also Qatar and Saudi Arabia as well, while also supporting increased attacks by the Houthi's. The markets are focused on whether commerce is occurring, but the larger issue of Iranian risk in the Middle East has not gone away long-term. I just don't think that President Trump wants to "finish the job" ahead of the midterm elections, or at least not prior to being confident that the U.S. voter would support him doing so. I don't think he's there yet. Regardless, long term risks remain for commodities emerging from the region. As a result, there are unconfirmed reports that tanker loading rates increased by 50% today from last week's level for those ships to enter the Gulf to load with product. The pace of ship movement through the Strait slowed dramatically today.

A dozen shadow fleet tankers have reportedly been hit by Ukraine in the past two days, which were thought to be delivering fuel to Crimea. Ukraine has also stepped up its strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including hitting strategic locations 1,500 miles or more from Ukraine. This created fuel shortages across much of Russia, which historically has been an important exporter of jet fuel and diesel. It long ago halted jet fuel exports, but it is now considering putting a halt to diesel exports. In fact, it is considering importing diesel fuel. Brazil historically imports about 20% of its diesel from Russia when those supplies are available, but it turns to the United States when they are not. That would suggest that we'll see increased demand for U.S. diesel as Brazil approaches its spring planting season, which correlates with our harvest season.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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