Bevan Everett Grain Recap Chinese Report 061026
Bevan Everett Grain Recap Chinese Translation
Grains Team Asia - Bevan Everett Chinese Translation
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 10
By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
June 10 – President Trump said the U.S. will be attacking Iran “very hard” if no peace deal is finalized, adding to a resumption of escalations amid the fresh back-and-forth strikes seen over the past 24 hours in the wake of the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian side has provided fresh escalatory fodder as well, with Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei quoted as saying “following overnight events, we need to reassess” in regard to the negotiating process. Following their retaliatory strikes on a handful of Gulf nations, the IRGC today said they were ready to give a “crushing and decisive” response if the U.S. attacked again. The market has seen this kind of inflammatory rhetoric from both sides for over 100 days now, leading to less severe price reactions to such statements. Couple this with ongoing fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, along with fresh contentious rhetoric between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Turkish President Erdogan, however, and the market’s fear of a broader regional conflict may be on the rise again.
Stocks are down and crude is up at midday, largely in response to the aforementioned escalation in the Middle East and this morning’s hot CPI data. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is again leading the way down, off another 1.3% on the day at the time of writing, still potentially pointing to a push for positioning and liquidity ahead of Friday’s SpaceX IPO, along with other highly anticipated upcoming AI IPOs. The VIX is elevated again today, hovering around 22 at midday, though still below yesterday’s fresh two-month high above 23.3. The dollar is in the red at midday, trading at 99.88 at the time of writing, holding in a tight range this week after Friday’s big jump. Treasuries have traded both sides of unchanged so far today but currently sit right around it, with 10-year yields at 4.53% and 2-year yields at 4.127%. Crude oil is climbing at midday, with nearby WTI now up roughly 2.5% on the day to trade near $91 and nearby Brent up nearly 3% on the day to trade around $94.20. The ags are largely in the green across the board, possibly benefitting from a broader commodity sector boost from the uptick in crude.
U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 7.227 million barrels week-over-week in the week ended June 5th, improving from the 7.974-million-barrel draw in the week prior but still significantly sharper than the anticipated 3.974-million-barrel draw. This brings total U.S. crude oil stocks excluding the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) to 426.49 million barrels, the tightest since mid-February. Total crude oil stocks at Cushing, OK fell to 21.64 million barrels, the lowest there since mid-December. The sharper than expected draw was not a result of increased crude exports, as they fell to 4.840 million from the spike up to 5.874 million in the week prior, but rather the ongoing strength in refinery utilization, ticking up 0.6% week-on-week to 95.3%, the highest since January, versus market expectations of holding steady at 94.7%.
Refined products did not see as sharp draws as expected, with distillate stocks falling 0.200 million barrels week-over-week, less than the expected 0.488 million, and gasoline stocks actually seeing a week-over-week build of 0.186 million barrels, a reversal in course from market expectations of a 0.471-million-barrel draw. Total distillate stocks remain relatively tight, sitting at 102.1 million barrels, but have rebounded slightly from the 23-year low of 100.8 million reached two weeks prior. The weaker than expected draw in distillates was largely a function of weekly production rising to its highest level since January combined with exports falling to a 10-week low, with demand holding relatively steady. Perhaps the most interesting takeaway on the gasoline side was the jump in weekly exports to 1.143 million barrels, the highest weekly level seen since last fall, highlighting the strong demand for U.S. energy amid the ongoing disruptions in the Middle East.
Crude oil stocks in the SPR fell another 7.93 million barrels week-over-week to now sit at 349.192 million, another fresh low since August 2023. We’re now only 2.434 million away from the multi-decade low of 346.758 million set back in early July of 2023; it will be interesting to see if we fall below that level in next week’s report. The rate of weekly draw from the SPR has softened for three consecutive weeks now after seeing three consecutive weeks of record SPR draws through the middle of May. While this is only a look at the U.S., it serves as a highlight of the broader global phenomenon of drawing from existing energy stocks to help offset the shock of the ongoing disruption in the Middle East. This has helped the market avoid feeling the full weight of said shock thus far but will continue to come more into focus the longer the conflict drags on.
- Grains & Oilseeds
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Discover more insights
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds
The Grain Selloff That Opened a Rare Window for Commercial Buyers
When speculative funds liquidate grain positions at scale, prices can fall fast enough to open a brief buying window that commercial end users are built to exploit. The latest selloff in corn and soybean markets produced exactly that, pulling Chicago Board of Trade prices to technical targets and drawing immediate physical demand from buyers in the U.S. and Brazil.
Editorial Team
- Grains & Oilseeds
Morning Commodity Insight: Technical Analysis and Trade Setup in Major Commodity Markets
This daily commentary delivers a concise, expert-driven overview of global futures markets, designed for traders and investors seeking actionable insights. Each edition covers the latest macroeconomic events, technical setups, and trade recommendations across major asset classes, including grains, livestock, metals, energy, currencies, treasury and equity indices. The report blends fundamental drivers with technical analysis to help readers navigate market volatility and identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Eli Tesfaye
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Base Metals
- Precious Metals
- Equities
- Energy
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Currencies
StoneX: We open markets
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.