Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 15 Jun 2023, 14:56

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

June 15 - Wall Street put the Federal Reserve's comments in its rear-view mirror as stocks pushed higher today on renewed optimism about the U.S. economy - a factor that may force the Fed's hand to follow through with higher rates yet this year. The VIX continues to trade near 14 as stocks push higher, while the dollar index trades notably lower at fresh four-week lows near 102.4, supporting strength in the broader commodity sector. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.71% at this hour, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64%. Crude oil prices are nearly 2% higher on better-than-expected Chinese refinery runs, while the grain and oilseed markets find strength in both a weaker dollar and in continued dryness across the Midwest. Momentum-trading Algos are feeding the bull as well, adding buy orders as charts confirm upward momentum and sellers step back from the market.

Industrial Production fell 0.2% month-on-month in May, after gaining 0.5% in April. Analysts expected sluggish 0.1% growth in May, so reality came in below expectations. Manufacturing output grew by 0.1%, down from 1.0% growth in April and below analyst expectations of 0.2% growth. Capacity utilization slipped slightly to 79.6% in May, down from 79.8% in April and below analyst expectations of 79.7%.

Exporters sold a seven-week high 10.8 million bushels of old-crop corn in the week ending June 8, as shown in the graphic below, along with 4.5 million bushels of grain sorghum, a 13-week high 17.6 million bushels of old-crop soybeans, and 6.1 million bushels of wheat. The corn and soybean sales reflected an upturn in sales, but there was nothing in the report to suggest that the bump reflected something sustainable with plenty of cheaper Brazilian supplies of both still available. Marketing year to date corn sales total 1.520 billion bushels, down 829 million or 35.3% from the previous year's pace, with bearish implications for the coming marketing year as well. In fact, that total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's recently lowered export target by 107 million bushels, which is unchanged from the previous week. Export shipments are slowing as shipments to China slow. China has less than 17 million bushels of additional unshipped old-crop corn on the books.

New-crop corn sales trail each of the previous five years at this point, due to the availability of a big crop of cheaper Brazilian supplies. China has just 10.7 million bushels of U.S. new-crop corn on the books, as it focuses on Brazilian supplies. Marketing year to date soybean export sales total 1.898 billion bushels, down 312 million bushels or 14.1% from the previous year's pace. The total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's recently lowered export target by 88 million bushels, versus being short by 95 million the previous week. New-crop soybean export sales are the lowest in four years, and nearly 400 million bushels behind last year's pace. China has 3 million bushels of unshipped old-crop U.S. soybeans still on the books, with just 53 million new-crop bushels on the books.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

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Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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