Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 15 Jun 2026, 17:10

Today's Perspective Video: Iran Peace Deal Sends Commodities Initially Lower. Is the Market Missing the Real Risk?

June 15 - The Dow pushed to a new record high this morning, with the other major indices posting solid gains as well. Enthusiasm about the Strait of Hormuz opening again provided much of the momentum for this morning's buying, although restoring "normal" commodity flow will likely take some time. Nonetheless, stocks rallied and the VIX continues to trade near 16 at midday, reflecting easing nerves on the Street, while the dollar index trades near 99.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.47% as investors focus on this week's Fed meeting, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.06%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel, while Brent trades near $83 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets posted substantial losses overnight, but value buyers erased much of those losses to push many of the markets to modest gains by midday.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reports that its members crushed 208.8 million bushels of soybeans in May, down from the average analyst estimate of 216 million bushels, and down from 211.9 million bushels the previous month. The bulk of analysts - myself included - expected crushers to push the envelope a bit and take time off their normal spring maintenance schedule due to very strong crush margins. Instead, crushers took the required time to do it right to be properly positioned to go strong through the fourth quarter of the marketing year. They'll likely try to push capacity to make up for some of that time going forward, with crush incentives remaining strong this summer. NOPA crush accounts for better than 97% of all crush this year. Accounting for that, year to date estimated total crush is just shy of 2 billion bushels, putting us 41 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. NOPA reported member soybean oil stocks at 1.735 billion pounds, falling below the average analyst estimate of 1.855 billion, down from 1.947 billion in April, and the lowest since February. One year ago stocks were a tight 1.373 billion pounds.

USDA inspected 64.4 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending June 11, as shown below, along with 19.2 million bushels of soybeans, and 12.3 million bushels each of wheat and grain sorghum. The portion of the above that was inspected for shipment specifically to China included 12.3 million bushels of grain sorghum and 5.0 million bushels of soybeans.

Marketing year to date corn export inspections total 2.583 billion bushels, up 533 million bushels or 26% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 172 million bushels, and that surplus continues to shrink. The seasonality of corn shipments comes into play here, as shipments typically drop of notably in the weeks ahead, with the weekly pace dropping by nearly 30 million bushels between now and the end of August as South American new crop supplies hit the market. The degree to which that drop off actually occurs this year will say a great deal about whether USDA bumps its export target further.

Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 1.345 billion bushels, down 325 million or 20% from the previous year's pace. USDA just cut its export target by 20 million to 1.510 billion bushels on Thursday. Yet, shipments remain strong, especially to non-China customers. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's new target by 54 million bushels, up from 45 million bushels the previous week. USDA may have to restore those cuts in future reports.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 28

August 28 – New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes center stage today from the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, due to provide his address in the next hour. The market will surely be parsing over his words with a fine-tooth comb, but it’s worth keeping in mind that his stated goal is for the Fed to provide less forward guidance and play a less prominent role, allowing the trade to “play the ball, not the referee.” With that said, my own expectation is to hear largely hawkish language as we did following the July Fed meeting as Warsh doubled down on the Fed’s stated commitment to its elusive 2.0% inflation mandate, which may drive volatility in rate expectations in the short-term, but keep in mind that expectations softened notably in the month that followed his hawkish comments. Not much has fundamentally changed since the Fed’s July meeting: inflation remains above target and the economy continues to expand, but a weak July payrolls report has introduced more concern around the labor side of the dual mandate. Yesterday’s jobless claims did give some renewed signs of resilience in the labor market to potentially aid in providing a permission signal to move rates higher, but I still expect the Fed to emphasize the need for patience. There is obviously plenty more impactful data on both inflation and the labor market sitting between now and the Fed’s September meeting, so much of the focus may also be attempting to discern longer-term changes to Fed strategy and positioning moving forward instead of just their immediate next step.

Mike CastleFri, 28 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 27

August 27 – The tech sector is breathing a collective sigh of relief, with the tech heavy Nasdaq poised for the biggest gains of the major indexes to start the day after impressive earnings results from Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike after yesterday's close. This sigh of relief is also reflected in Wall Street’s fear index, with the VIX falling back below 15 for the first time this week. The dollar has slowly inched higher this week as it claws back portions of last week’s losses and is holding just above unchanged at the time of writing, trading just above the 99.16 level. Treasuries are quietly mixed to start the day, with 2-year yields down very slightly to trade at 4.222%, 10-year yields unchanged at 4.664%, and 30-year yields up slightly to trade at 5.188%. Crude oil is also just above unchanged to start the day, with nearby WTI up roughly 0.7% to trade near $82.50 while nearby Brent is up roughly 0.6% to trade near $87.50. The ags are largely mixed to start the day, with the wheat complex clinging to small gains while corn and soybeans are quietly lower.

Mike CastleThu, 27 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 26

August 26 – It’s a quiet day on Wall Street despite the tranche of data released today, with focus shifting to chip giant Nvidia’s earnings report due out after today’s close. The major stock indexes are all quietly lower at midday, down anywhere from 0.25% to 0.35% at the time of writing, while the VIX remains muted as it hovers near 15.6. The dollar has firmed through the morning, reflecting some additional hawkish sentiment after this morning’s inflation data, as it trades at 99.17, its highest level since last Wednesday’s selloff. Treasury yields are working higher as well, with 2-year yields up to 4.23%, 10-year yields up to 4.668%, and 30-year yields up to 5.186%. Crude oil has reversed course from this morning’s losses to now trade in the green amid rumblings of more escalations in the Black Sea region as well as a more bullish than expected D.O.E. report this morning, with nearby WTI now up 2.1% on the day to trade near $82.80 and nearby Brent up 0.6% to trade near $87.80. The ags are surging higher at midday, with the wheat complex now leading the way higher amid additional concerns regarding supply from the Black Sea following wire reports stating Putin is planning escalation with Ukraine, though details to this point are scarce.

Mike CastleWed, 26 Aug 2026, 16:59

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