Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 24 Jun 2026, 17:01

Today's Perspective Video: The Forecast is Clear. The Market Outlook Isn't.

June 24 - The tech sector bounced today, allowing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to surge higher to post new record highs as crude oil prices continue to tumble to levels not seen since the first days of the Iran war. The VIX fell lower to trade near 19, while the dollar index remains firm near 101.5 after posting new 13-month highs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.41%, supporting that tech recovery, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded near 4.15% as both remain under pressure today as inflation fears ease. Yet, the yield curve continues to flatten. WTI crude oil traded near $70 per barrel at midday, after falling below that level earlier in the morning, while Brent trades near $74 per barrel. Wheat prices are bouncing at midday, while corn and soybean prices post modest losses.

Key economic data is scheduled for release that could impact the direction of monetary policy in the United States under new Chair Kevin Warsh. We'll see durable goods orders data released in the morning for the month of May, with expectations that it's going to show 0.4% growth on the month when transportation orders are excluded, although -4.7% growth when those transportation orders are included. However, the primary focus will be on the PCE inflation data that the Federal Reserve typically focuses on. The average analyst guess ahead of the report's release puts headline inflation up 0.4% on the month, unchanged from April, but with year-on-year inflation rising to 4.1%, up from 3.8% in April. Core inflation that excludes those high energy prices from May is expected to be up 0.3% on the month, and up 3.4% on the year - both up 0.1 points from April. Keep in mind, this is May data when high energy prices were working through the economy. Energy prices are much lower now, but that won't show up in the data until next month. Meanwhile, tomorrow's data will shape perceptions about where we are headed.

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped another 6.1 million to 412.1 million barrels in the week ending June 19, putting them about 7% below the five-year average for mid-June. Crude oil imports totaled 5.6 million barrels last week, while exports reached 4.7 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.1 million barrels, but that still leaves them 5% below seasonal levels. Distillate stocks increased by 3.1 million barrels, leaving them still 10% below levels typically seen in mid-June. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to 331.2 million barrels in the week ending June 19, down from 340.3 million barrels the previous week, and down from 402.5 million barrels in the same week last year.

Ethanol stocks crept higher to 24.6 million barrels in the week ending June 19, up from 24.5 million the previous week, and up from 24.4 million barrels in the same week last year. Ethanol production fell to 1,090K barrels per day last week, down from 1,102K bpd the previous week, but up from 1,081K bpd the previous year. Estimated corn use to produce fuel ethanol totaled 102.8 million bushels last week, down from 104.0 million bushels the previous week, but slightly below the 102.9 million bushels utilized in the same week last year due to greater efficiencies in current output. Estimated marketing year to date corn use for fuel ethanol production totaled 4.390 billion bushels, up 22 million bushels from the previous year's pace, but 53 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year that ends on August 31. We're producing a lot of ethanol. We're exporting a lot of ethanol. We're just using less corn to produce that ethanol, which is creating the deficit. Congressional approval of year-around sales of E-15 gasoline would increase demand for ethanol long-term, although it will not have much immediate impact on the balance sheet.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 26

June 26 – Chip stocks weighed on stock futures overnight, contributing to general weakness across the board as Iran tries to take control of the Strait of Hormuz once again, testing the fragility of the ceasefire. The VIX elevated to trade near 21 this morning, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 101.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.40%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.10% as the yield curve steepens a bit this morning. WTI crude oil traded back below $70 per barrel this morning, as Brent traded near $73, while the grain and oilseed markets traded mostly weaker as well ahead of the weekend.

Arlan SudermanFri, 26 Jun 2026, 13:41

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 25

June 25 – Stock futures pushed higher overnight, led by the tech sector, ahead of a plethora of key economic data released this morning, including durable goods orders for May and PCE inflation data. That data gave another initial modest push to those gains when released. The VIX is trading below 18 at this hour, while the dollar index trades near 101.6. Yields on 20-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.11%. WTI crude oil made new post-war lows this morning below $69 per barrel on reports that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to pre-war levels, while the grain and oilseed sector was mixed, with corn and wheat prices again under modest pressure while soybeans posted modest gains.

Arlan SudermanThu, 25 Jun 2026, 13:32

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Iran, China and the Unconfirmed Promises Keeping Grain Traders Guessing

With Iranian asset releases unverified and China's soybean purchase commitments untested, grain markets are trading on assumptions rather than confirmed flows. Arlan Suderman breaks down why the verification gap is the most consequential variable facing U.S. commodity prices right now.

Editorial TeamWed, 24 Jun 2026, 21:44

Grains & Oilseeds

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