Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 29

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 29 Jun 2023, 16:20

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

June 29 - Stocks were generally firmer this morning, supported by recent favorable economic data. Yet, those gains have thus far been capped by rising interest rates emerging from hawkish comments from central bankers. The VIX is trading near 14 at this hour, with the dollar index trading near 103.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.85%, with yields on 2-year Treasuries trading at three-month highs near 4.87%. Crude oil prices are modestly higher at this hour, while the grain and oilseed complex is trading mixed. The latter is starting to focus more on tomorrow's highly-anticipated USDA quarterly grain stocks and planted acreage reports. This morning's trade is focused on the possibility that we'll see soybean stocks come in a bit tighter, while corn stocks might surprise to the high side. Export sales for both continue to be weak, but soybean stocks are already much tighter, giving less margin for error for the oilseed, which also has expanding domestic demand. Weather continues to be a major factor as well, with the maps below showing the updated probability of getting at least 1" of rain at over 90% in the days ahead for key dry areas of the Midwest, with significant probabilities over 2" in these dry areas as well. How these rains verify in the days ahead will likely be a primary market driver as we come back from the Fourth of July holiday next week.

Two of Russia's most senior generals have disappeared from public view following this past weekend's failed coup attempt that was aimed at toppling the country's top military brass. Their fate is uncertain currently as President Putin seeks to reassert his authority in Russia. Reuters reports unconfirmed rumors that at least one of the generals has been detained by authorities for questioning. Armed forces Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov is commander of Russia's war in Ukraine, and he is the holder of one of Russia's three "nuclear briefcases". Yet he has not appeared in public or on state TV since the weekend when the coup attempt leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, demanded that Gerasimov be handed over to him, nor has he been mentioned in any press releases from the defense ministry press releases since June 9th. Also absent from view is General Sergei Surovikin, who is deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, and who carries the nickname "General Armageddon." Analysts believe that Putin is currently trying to weed out those military personnel who showed signs of a "lack of decisiveness" in putting down the coup attempt amid signs that some military units did little to provide resistance for the mercenary army as it marched out of Ukraine toward Moscow. The above illustrates the uncertainty in geopolitical risks for the Black Sea region following the weekend's failed coup attempt, with analysts wary of what Putin might do to reassert an image of strength, both at home and in the Ukraine war.

The pending home sales index dropped 2.7% to 76.5 in May, down from 78.6 the previous month, which exceeded expectations that it would fall 0.6%. The index is down to varying degrees year-on-year in all four regions across the country. The pending home sales index is a leading indicator of housing activity, measuring contract activity for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Today's lower number goes counter to recent data showing a bump in housing activity. A drop in housing activity would argue for a longer pause in the Federal Reserve's rate hike campaign.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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