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Matt Zeller
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 8
By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
June 8 – The mood on Wall Street remains upbeat at midday, with the Nasdaq rebounding over 2% from ugly Friday losses, while the S&P 500 is up roughly 0.75%, and the Dow Jones is up a little over 0.1% at the time of writing. The VIX is now down over 15% on the day as it falls to 18.2, still elevated to the latter half of May but relatively muted given the number of headlines hitting the market. The dollar remains slightly in the red at midday, hovering near 99.94 at the time of writing. Treasuries have reversed course from morning losses, with 10-year yields now slightly in the green just below 4.56% and 2-year yields right at unchanged above 4.16%. Longer-term 30-year yields are also up on the day, back to trading around 5.025% at the time of writing. Crude oil remains in the green, though well off the highs, with nearby WTI still up 1.1% on the day to trade near $91.20 and nearby Brent futures up 1.7% to trade near $94.70. The ags are largely mixed at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way higher, while the protein sector is seeing the most notable selloff amid fresh New World Screwworm headlines—more detail on that below.
Tenuous de-escalation appears to be the theme of the day, with Reuters reporting that Iran has lifted flight restrictions and Israel has lifted movement restrictions, both signs of a potential easing in tensions following the back-and-forth strikes. However, both sides continue to leave open the possibility for a quick resumption of fighting if the ceasefire is violated again. Lebanon may prove to be the catalyst if a resumption of strikes begins again, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivering a televised statement that the war with Hezbollah “has not yet ended.” As has been the case for the now 100-day-old conflict, markets will continue keeping a close eye on rapidly developing headlines regarding the conflict.
Weekly corn export inspections rose to a five-week high at 75.2 million bushels, above even the top-end estimate as demand for U.S. corn remains red hot. Cumulative corn inspections in the ‘25/’26 marketing year now total 2.515 billion bushels, up 26.8% year-over-year and easily an all-time high for this point in the year, keeping us on track to surpass USDA’s 3.300-billion-bushel export target. USDA also announced flash sales of 103,000 metric tons (4.05 million bushels) of corn to Japan this morning, with 40,000 tons (1.57 million bushels) of old crop and the remaining 63,000 tons (2.48 million bushels) for new crop (‘26/’27).
Meanwhile, soybean inspections continue their seasonal cooldown, falling to 14.6 million bushels in the week ending 6/4, with Egypt the top destination. Of this total, 2.5 million bushels were destined for China, bringing the cumulative ‘25/’26 marketing year to date total to 427.1 million bushels, bringing near the end of the existing 12 million metric ton (or 440.9 million bushel) purchase commitment. It’s also worth noting that we did see USDA announce flash sales of 264,000 metric tons (9.7 million bushels) of new crop (‘26/’27) soybeans to unknown destinations this morning—could this get the rumor mill for sales to China going? Elsewhere, weekly wheat inspections totaled 11.7 million bushels, right in line with expectations, as we have officially turned the page to the new ‘26/’27 wheat marketing year as the calendar turned to June.
USDA has confirmed another two cases of New World Screwworm in Texas this morning, per Reuters, following the first two confirmed cases late last week. Of today’s two new cases, one was reportedly found in a calf in La Salle County, not far from the initial two cases in remote southern Texas, but the other was reportedly found in a dog in Andrews County, much further from the Mexico border. Details are still relatively limited at this time, but the quick spread appears likely to keep the story in the headlines in the near-term. The USDA has said a total of 75 people are deployed on the ground, with hundreds more supporting from afar, adding that they are continuing to release sterile flies in affected areas.
Both live and feeder cattle futures are seeing a sharp selloff at midday in the wake of the headlines. In my own opinion, this appears more likely to be a liquidation of managed money length than any actual fundamental impact, as evidenced by the bigger drop coming on the live cattle side amid larger remaining speculative net length left there relative to feeders. New World Screwworm is treatable in the U.S. and does not affect the beef itself. However, it does raise production costs for ranchers already struggling to rebuild the domestic beef herd—a significant spread of the disease would likely make that even more difficult. In that situation, the underlying tight supply story remains present. The only real bearish concerns would be if widespread news coverage and salacious headlines lead to consumer fears that lessen domestic beef demand, which feels unlikely given ongoing dietary trend shifts, or if we were to see a reopening of the Mexican border to feeder cattle imports due to the disease now being present in the States. Otherwise, this story appears more like noise for the near-term, which can certainly cause significant price swings, especially if managed money length gets scared out of the market, but the longer-term fundamentals don’t appear to be much changed. Perhaps the more notable thing to keep an eye on are the potential signs of consumer stress being seen in the cutout markets, with the anticipated seasonal uptick not materializing thus far this summer, and consumers appearing to shift demand to lower-value cuts.
- Grains & Oilseeds
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