Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 11 Mar 2026, 15:13

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence – Senior Grains Analyst

March 11 – The Dow Jones Industrials are choppy but lower again today, trading at their lowest level since December 1, 2025 as the Iran war rages on. The U.S. continues to strike Iranian cargo ships and prevent minelayers in an effort to open the Gulf and prevent economic damage, but the marketplace is still looking for a quicker de-escalation of war as the conflict drags through its second week. Conversely, treasury yields are on the rise today with inflation sticking around as well. The VIX remains cooled compared to last week, in the 24-25 range.

WTI crude oil remains the commodity most in focus this week, with energy trading remaining volatile but the spot April crude contract seeming to have found a more comfortable, inside trading range around $85-87/bbl this morning. The International Energy Agency this morning said that member countries had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from state reserves in an attempt to ease prices. Member countries hold over 1.2 billion barrels of crude oil and the U.S. holds around one-third of that in the SPR as of Mid-February. However, the IEA did not set a definitive timeline, and in the U.S. alone it would take at least two weeks after any presidential order for released supplies to come anywhere near an end user. Japan – an IEA member – said they planned to release oil from national reserves “around late March”, which would roughly match any U.S. timeline. Many would hope the war would be over by then, though Iran has indicated a prolonged fight…

Iran has reportedly sent around 12 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, according to vessel-tracking data – all of which were headed to China. They have also resumed loading oil and gas tankers at a different terminal south of the Strait. Shipments remain significantly lower than pre-war levels; Iran had exported 2.16 million barrels per day of crude in the month of February, the highest number since July 2018, and all of it was headed for China.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Energy reported a 3.82 million-barrel build in U.S. crude oil inventories on the week ending 3/6, more than double the average trade estimate and the third straight weekly increase. Total oil inventories are at 443.1 mln bbls, above 435 mln last year but safely within the three-year range at this point. Domestic production was off slightly week-over-week but remains strong at 13.68 mln bpd, still a record number for this comparable week of the year. Gasoline and distillate stocks were both down week-over-week but remain at or near three-year highs for this point in the calendar as well.

U.S. fuel ethanol production continues to run strong as well, up from 1.095 to 1.126 million barrels per day on the most recent reporting week; output is on track to meet or even exceed the USDA’s current estimate for 5.6 billion bushels of corn used for ethanol in 2025/26. With exports rolling as well, that at least gives some bullish demand signs for a corn market that is still anchored by massive supplies and an aggressive USDA feed use expectation…

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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