Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 13 Mar 2024, 16:51

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Senior Fertilizer Analyst

March 13 - Stocks are mixed at mid-day, with the Dow Jones showing strength but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the red at the time of writing, while the VIX remains relatively muted as it hovers above the 13.8 level. The dollar is in the red today after strength to start the week, trading just above the 104.2 level. Treasuries are up slightly on the day, with 10-year yields trading near 4.19% while 2-year yields trade near 4.61%. Crude oil is up on a handful of storylines outlined in more detail below, while the ags are mostly lower at mid-day.

Russian refineries faced another round of attacks today, with Ukrainian drones damaging and causing a blaze at Rosneft's largest refinery in Ryazan as well as halting operations at the Novoshakhtinsk refinery just across Ukraine's eastern border. This follows similar attacks seen yesterday on Lukoil's massive NORSI refinery in Kirishi, not far to Moscow's east, as Ukraine continues to show their widening range as they ramp-up their targeting of Russian energy infrastructure in recent months. The strikes were a very widespread barrage, with Russian officials saying they had successfully downed 60+ other drones across the country. With the war now in a grinding attrition phase after passing the two-year mark, Ukraine appears committed to disrupting Russia's ability to finance their war effort as well as impact their military's fuel supply. We saw Russia put a six month ban on gasoline exports at the start of the month, in large part due to the handful of outages caused by previous attacks. The strikes of the last two days are likely to exacerbate the issue, and it will be interesting to see if Ukraine keeps the pressure on, especially with Russia's elections scheduled for this weekend. While it's a foregone conclusion who will win, public support for the war could potentially continue eroding as it comes closer to home.

U.S. crude oil inventories fell for the first time in seven weeks according to this morning's DOE report, adding to the strength seen in energy markets today. The 1.5 Mb draw came despite a sharp drop in exports, seen in large part due to closures on the Houston ship channel caused by heavy fog, which likely impacted LNG and LPG exports as well. Gasoline inventories also fell by more than expected at 5.7 Mb, while diesel inventories rose by 0.9 Mb on weaker demand. Coupled with the above-mentioned supply risks from the Russia/Ukraine war, ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and extended voluntary cuts from OPEC+, the energy markets are feeling some support today. However, WTI crude oil continues to struggle at breaking that lingering $80 resistance, with the nearby April contract making another run at it this morning before stalling out and falling back towards the $79 level at the time of writing.

AI mania continues to be the story on Wall Street, with stocks yesterday impressively shrugging off the hotter than expected CPI data in large part due to the continued strength seen in the tech sector driven by stronger than expected results from Oracle. That strength has worn off today, however, with Oracle losing ground and Wall Street's darling Nvidia in the red as well. This has the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way lower, while the S&P 500 hangs slightly in the red, and the Dow Jones is in the green. Otherwise, economic news is quite limited today, though the trade will get to see U.S. PPI, retail sales, and a range of labor data tomorrow that should help provide some direction.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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