Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 13 Mar 2025, 16:34

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

March 13 - Wall Street came under pressure again this morning after various voices in the White House made comments suggesting that a period of economic upheaval can be expected as it implements policies that it believes will give us a stronger economy in the long run. In other words, it appears to be a "short-term pain - long-term gain" philosophy at the White House, that the markets are responding to as this unfolds. We did see Russian President Putin say that he agrees with the U.S. ceasefire proposal for Ukraine as long as it leads to a longer-term peace the region. He acknowledged that the details of such an agreement still need to be worked out. The VIX Is trading near 25 as stocks fall, while the dollar index 103.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.30% after hitting fresh two-week highs this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.97%. Crude oil prices are 1% lower again as traders worry about eroding demand, while the grain and oilseed markets are notably higher.

Kansas City wheat futures led the grain and oilseed complex higher at midday with double-digit gains. Prices had fallen to levels that were attractive to end users with considerable risks ahead of us. Let's put this into context with the graphic below. It shows global wheat stocks among all major exporters, with the exception of the United States. I took the United States out of the equation, because it is the residual supplier to the world. It has the best quality storage in the world, and a variable rate storage charge that pays the industry to use that storage. The world empties everyone else's bins first before coming to the United States.

USDA estimates that world wheat stocks are currently at 260 million metric tons, down from 269.5 mmt the previous year. Of this year's stocks, 129 mmt or about half are located within China, which isn't ever expected to hit the world market. Major exporter supplies are much lower, with the United States holding much of that. The bottom line though is the brown line on the graphic below showing major exporter supplies as a percent of annual usage. At just over 10%, these stocks are the second lowest of the past generation. That by itself is not justification for rationing demand with higher prices, but it does say that there is very little margin for error if we have a significant production problem in a major producing area of the world. It's currently quite dry in the southwestern half of the Plains hard red winter wheat belt. There's likely some winterkill damage as well, but I'm generally skeptical of that until proven otherwise. Russia's winter wheat crop is in similar condition. The Canadian Prairies are dry as well. End users and speculators are asking, how low are we comfortable allowing prices to get before we build some ownership under the above scenario, just in case the above weather issues become something more significant over the next 60 - 90 days?

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