Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 28

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 28 Mar 2024, 16:10

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

March 28 - Stocks were very quietly mixed to higher for much of the morning, turning quiet ahead of the Easter holiday break. The markets will be closed tomorrow for the holiday, although the government is still due to release key inflation data in the morning. The VIX is trading near 13 at midday, while the dollar index is trading near 104.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.60%. Crude oil prices are more than 1% higher, while the grain and oilseed markets are reacting to today's USDA reports.

Today's consumer sentiment survey results painted a little different picture than the consumer confidence survey results released earlier this week - a bit more positive. The index came in at 79.4, up from 76.9 the previous month, and up from 62.0 the previous year. The current conditions index rose to 82.5 in March, up from 79.4 the previous month and up from 66.3 the previous year. The index of consumer expectations rose to 77.4, up from 75.2 the previous month and up from 59.2 the previous year. Overall, sentiment has been stable through the first quarter of this year, although it may become more volatile as the election nears. Year-ahead inflation expectations inched lower to 2.9%, while long-run inflation expectations inched lower to 2.8%. That compares to expectations of 2.2 - 2.6% in the two years prior to the pandemic. The consumer sentiment survey is conducted by the University of Michigan, while the previous consumer confidence index was conducted by the Conference Board. Other data released this morning showed the pending home sales index rising 1.6% month-on-month, after falling 4.7% the previous month. Analysts had expected a 1.3% rise in the index. The National Association of Realtors Chief Economist stated that "Ongoing job gains are clearly increasing demand along with more inventory."

USDA released its quarterly stocks and planting intentions survey results today, with the results reported below, relative to expectations. The key takeaway from the reports was the decline in corn acres to 90.036 milion, down more than 1.7 million from trade expectations. Soybean acres came in at 86.510 million, which was near expectations. That gives combined corn and soybean acreage of 176.5 million, down more than 2 mllion on the year. Soybean stocks also came in lower than expected by 80 million bushels, suggesting that USDA may have over-stated the size of last year's crop. Today's corn acreage spurred immediate short-covering by managed money, resulting in double-digit gains.

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