Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 30

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 30 Mar 2026, 17:16

Today's Perspective Video: EPA's Biofuel Rules are Bullish Feedstock Demand

March 30 - Stocks are mixed at midday, with the tech sector beginning to slip back into negative territory as the dollar pushes higher, despite weaker Treasury yields. The VIX is trading near 30, after probing above 31 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 100.5 after hitting a fresh 10-month high. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.33%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.82%. Crude oil prices are trading near $103 per barrel, while Brent crude is near $112 per barrel. Corn prices are lower after failing to take out chart resistance near $4.70 in the May contract, while soybeans are higher on Friday's announced strong biofuel program. Some corn / soybean spreading is taking place based on that announcement. Wheat prices followed crude oil higher, with the exception of Kansas City, which is weaker on rain prospects.

USDA inspected 70.4 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending March 26, as shown below, along with 21.5 million bushels of soybeans, 13.4 million bushels of wheat, and 7.1 million bushels of grain sorghum. All of the grain sorghum was inspected for shipment to China once again, along with 9.9 million bushels of soybeans. China continues to be an active taker of U.S. grain sorghum, although marketing year to date inspections of grain sorghum to all destinations continues to fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 17 million bushels. We're down to the final nine or 10 weeks of the wheat marketing year, with year to date inspections exceeding the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 53 million bushels, so a much different story there.

Marketing year to date corn export inspections are at a record pace of 1.826 billion bushels, up 484 million bushels or 36% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's record large target by 298 million bushels. That surplus continues to erode away on a weekly basis as the weekly shipment total falls short of the seasonal weekly pace needed to hit USDA's target. That's because this is a seasonally strong time when we normally ship lots of corn ahead of the South American harvest. This year, we started the year with much larger than normal shipments because Brazil was using a larger portion of their crop to produce ethanol. That strong contra-seasonal start is being partially offset by a weaker than normal pace now. One could still probably argue for another 75 million bushel increase in the target to 3.375 billion bushels based on what we currently know. How we finish the marketing year on August 31 will likely hinge on a) the size of Brazil's safrinha corn crop, and b) whether corn is included in the trade deal with China when President Trump visits Beijing on May 14.

Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 1.094 billion bushels, which is the slowest pace in seven years. The total falls 404 million bushels or 27% short of the previous year's total, but USDA has a much lower export target this year. The total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 112 million bushels, but that deficit continues to shrink each week as shipments exceed the pace that we'd normally see at this time of year. This has been a very contra-seasonal soybean shipment season. Shipments were very slow early in the marketing year due to the absence of China, which then promised to buy 12 million metric tons - 441 million bushels - on October 30. China has thus far taken shipment of 331 million bushels of that total, leaving another 110 million bushels yet to go. Once that is done, I expect the shipment pace to drop off pretty significantly, considering how cheap Brazilian soybeans are currently being offered on the global market, unless China buys more in the trade deal in May. I'm skeptical of that, but I can't rule it out.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

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Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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