Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 19

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Tue, 19 May 2026, 16:31

May 19 – Stocks remain squarely in the red at midday, with the Nasdaq leading the way down, followed by the S&P 500, then Dow Jones. It’s been an incredibly impressive earnings season overall, which has helped drive stocks to record highs in recent weeks, but the tech sector is gearing up for another big one as chip powerhouse Nvidia is due to report its first quarter results tomorrow after the close. The VIX remains relatively muted, hovering right around 18 at the time of writing. The dollar is firming into midday, touching a fresh six-week high above 99.43 but now trading around the 99.35 level. Treasuries continue to surge, with 10-year yields rising to a fresh 16-month high above 4.67% and 2-year yields making a 15-month high at 4.125%. Nearby WTI crude oil remains in the green, trading just below $104 at the time of writing, while nearby Brent futures have firmed through the day to trade near $111. The ags are quietly mixed, with the wheat complex holding in the green after an ugly USDA Crop Progress after yesterday's close.

U.S. winter wheat ratings continue to deteriorate, with good/excellent ratings falling another 1% and poor/very poor rising another 3% week-over-week on yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report. At the national level, the U.S. winter wheat crop is now rated only 27% good/excellent, the lowest for the comparable week since 1996, while the 43% poor/very poor is the highest at this point since 2014. The issue remains centered on the Plains, where moisture is returning but likely too late for much of the southern portions given the rapid maturation the crop has experienced amid ongoing dryness. USDA did not report any harvest progress this week, but we’ve heard reports of combines already rolling in Texas and Oklahoma; they may be knocked back out of the field by these forecasted rains, however. Northern portions of the Plains hard red winter wheat belt could benefit from this moisture, as should the soft wheat belts of the Eastern Midwest and Pacific Northwest. For now, however, the main focus remains primarily on the Plains, and the market will be anxiously awaiting reports of early harvest results in the weeks ahead.

It was a big week of planting progress in the U.S., with spring wheat, corn, and soybeans advancing 20%, 19%, and 18% week-over-week, respectively. Corn planting is now pegged at 76% complete, soybeans at 67%, and spring wheat at 73%; each of these were 1% faster than their respective estimates. Much of the Midwest has seen heavy rains to start the week, with forecasts leaning wet for the next 10 days as well. This may slow down the tail-end of planting season but provides an excellent boost to soil moisture for the crops already in the ground.

Pending home sales in the U.S. rose more than expected in April, up 1.4% month-over-month versus the average analyst estimate of a more modest 1.0% rise. March was also revised higher from the 1.5% initially reported to now show a 1.7% month-over-month uptick. The housing market has recently shown some signs of life amid a relatively ugly stretch, somewhat echoing the theme of a more resilient than expected U.S. economy. We’ll get plenty more housing market data in the days ahead to see if that can continue, with weekly mortgage rates and applications tomorrow morning, as well as housing starts and building permits due out on Thursday.

Private employers added an average of 42.25k jobs per week in the four weeks ending May 2^nd per this morning’s ADP weekly NER Pulse report, a fresh record high for the metric. The U.S. labor market has continued to prove much more resilient than expected—a positive for the health of the economy but a negative for the doves clinging on to any remaining hope for lower rates ahead, especially amid resurgent inflation.

Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will officially be sworn in by President Trump on Friday, inheriting a difficult situation. He will likely face continued political pressure to cut rates, but economic data cautioning against it. The market has shifted its expectations rather notably, with CME’s FedWatch showing the odds of a 25-basis point rate hike surpassing the odds of rates being held steady, as shown in the graphic below. It’s also worth pointing out that the odds of a 25-basis point cut have all but disappeared, while chances of multiple hikes in 2026 are now being priced in, providing headwinds to the equities. Look for this to remain front of mind for the market for the remainder of the year ahead.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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