Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 29

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 29 May 2026, 16:40

Today's Perspective Video: Trump Post a Deal, or Ultimatum?

May 29 - The S&P and the Nasdaq both posted record highs this morning amid ongoing AI optimism and hope for a weekend peace deal with Iran. Those hopes were boosted by a Truth Social post by President Trump this morning. The VIX is trading near a four-month low just above 15 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 98.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.44%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.00%. WTI crude oil $88 per barrel, while Brent trades near $92 per barrel. The grain and oilseed complex is largely in the red as well, with the exception of the edible oils, with both soybean oil and canola oil posting new highs for the move today on strong biofuel demand.

President Trump posted on his Truth Social Account what appeared to be peace agreement terms with Iran. At first glance, it was a list of demands that have been the starting point for all U.S. negotiations since the start of this war. However, he also stated that the U.S. Naval blockade "will now be lifted," raising speculation that this was actually an agreement. In reality, it looks like this is more of an ultimatum. The Naval blockade obviously isn't going to be lifted without Iran's acceptance of the agreement. Trump concludes the post by saying that he was headed into the Situation Room to make a final determination. That could suggest that Trump was essentially posting an ultimatum, that if Iran rejects, gives him the go ahead to return to military action against it. It may be his negotiating tactic to force Iran to make a decision, even though the Revolutionary Guard has repeatedly shown resistance toward being forced to do anything. In essence, it appears that Trump was saying, this is your (Iran's) last chance to accept the terms. We've heard threats before. The next several days should tell us a great deal.

The real question going into the weekend is, how far is Trump willing to go to "win" this war, versus just reach a point of Strategic Stability? We may soon know, and that would be expected to have significant implications for the commodity markets. For today, the money flow is trading the "risk" that we will have a peace deal over the weekend, with money generally flowing out of the energy and grain and oilseed markets. That could still change ahead of the close, but otherwise traders will monitor the headlines through the weekend to see if they continue that trend on Sunday night, or if they reverse it.

Exporters sold 40 million bushels of current year corn in the week ending May 21, along with 11.0 million bushels of old-crop soybeans and 2.6 million bushels of grain sorghum. Wheat's marketing year ends on Sunday, so we saw the rolling of nearly 30 million bushels of old-crop wheat to the new marketing year. I'm still looking for final wheat exports to come in about 5 million bushels above USDA's target, pending final wheat donations that haven't shown up in the numbers yet. Marketing year to date corn export sales total 3.184 billion bushels, up 657 million bushels or 26% from the previous year's pace, and 198 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's record high target of 3.300 billion bushels. There's still time for the pace to fall off over the next three months, but another 50 - 75 million-bushel increase in the target could be justified. Marketing year to date soybean export sales total 1.458 billion bushels - a 13-year low for this time of year. That's down 318 million bushels or 18% from the previous year's pace. Yet, it essentially matches the seasonal pace we need to be on to hit USDA's target by August 31. Granted, that target is 352 million bushels lower than the previous year's final shipments.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 27

July 27 – It was a quiet weekend for Iran, which investors interpreted as a sign that there’s still a chance for peace in the Middle East. Yet, Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked Saudi Arabian oil facilities in the Red Sea, providing a reminder that risks remain significant. Even so, overnight market action again reflected sentiment that investors continue to read headlines through a filter of hope – desperately wanting to believe that peace is just around the corner. Commodity prices tumbled overnight while stock futures pushed higher, with the VIX slipping below 18 and the dollar index trading near 101.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries traded near 4.65%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded near 4.32%. WTI crude oil is trading near $84 this morning, although that’s a couple of dollars off its session low, while Brent trades near $91 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mostly weaker overnight as well, following crude oil prices lower, while also reacting to improving weather models for the Midwest as we approach the key crop development month of August.

Arlan SudermanMon, 27 Jul 2026, 13:48

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
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Renewable Fuels
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Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

U.S. Corn Exports Gain From Shifting Global Trade

U.S. corn exports could gain support as Black Sea disruption and weaker European production redirect buyers toward alternative suppliers. Rising Brazilian ethanol demand may further strengthen the competitive position of US corn in the 2026 and 2027 marketing year.

Editorial TeamFri, 24 Jul 2026, 22:21

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 24

July 24 – Stocks have turned mixed into midday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq in the red while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 trade higher. Much of the recent weakness has centered on the tech sector as traders scrutinize the ongoing heavy AI expenditure, with the Nasdaq touching a new low since early May this morning, while other sectors continue to perform well. Meanwhile, the VIX is cooling into midday as it hovers around the 17.9 level at the time of writing. The dollar is effectively unchanged on the day near 101.4 after spiking to a fresh three-week high yesterday. Treasuries are taking a bit of a breather after the recent sharp rise in yields but remain elevated, with 10-year yields at 4.67% and 2-year yields at 4.32%. Crude oil is reversing course from its three-week surge as well, with nearby WTI down ~4.2% on the day to trade near $88.50 and nearby Brent down ~4.8% to trade near $95.80 at the time of writing. Traders will be keeping a close eye on potential escalations in the Middle East over the weekend, balancing reports of renewed attempts at peace talks against ongoing threats from both sides. The ags remain largely mixed, with soybeans and meal in the green but much of the remaining complex in the red, most notably on the wheat side which we’ll dive into in more depth below.

Mike CastleFri, 24 Jul 2026, 17:20

Grains & Oilseeds

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