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Chief Commodities Economist
Today's Perspective Video: Trump Post a Deal, or Ultimatum?
May 29 - The S&P and the Nasdaq both posted record highs this morning amid ongoing AI optimism and hope for a weekend peace deal with Iran. Those hopes were boosted by a Truth Social post by President Trump this morning. The VIX is trading near a four-month low just above 15 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 98.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.44%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.00%. WTI crude oil $88 per barrel, while Brent trades near $92 per barrel. The grain and oilseed complex is largely in the red as well, with the exception of the edible oils, with both soybean oil and canola oil posting new highs for the move today on strong biofuel demand.
President Trump posted on his Truth Social Account what appeared to be peace agreement terms with Iran. At first glance, it was a list of demands that have been the starting point for all U.S. negotiations since the start of this war. However, he also stated that the U.S. Naval blockade "will now be lifted," raising speculation that this was actually an agreement. In reality, it looks like this is more of an ultimatum. The Naval blockade obviously isn't going to be lifted without Iran's acceptance of the agreement. Trump concludes the post by saying that he was headed into the Situation Room to make a final determination. That could suggest that Trump was essentially posting an ultimatum, that if Iran rejects, gives him the go ahead to return to military action against it. It may be his negotiating tactic to force Iran to make a decision, even though the Revolutionary Guard has repeatedly shown resistance toward being forced to do anything. In essence, it appears that Trump was saying, this is your (Iran's) last chance to accept the terms. We've heard threats before. The next several days should tell us a great deal.
The real question going into the weekend is, how far is Trump willing to go to "win" this war, versus just reach a point of Strategic Stability? We may soon know, and that would be expected to have significant implications for the commodity markets. For today, the money flow is trading the "risk" that we will have a peace deal over the weekend, with money generally flowing out of the energy and grain and oilseed markets. That could still change ahead of the close, but otherwise traders will monitor the headlines through the weekend to see if they continue that trend on Sunday night, or if they reverse it.
Exporters sold 40 million bushels of current year corn in the week ending May 21, along with 11.0 million bushels of old-crop soybeans and 2.6 million bushels of grain sorghum. Wheat's marketing year ends on Sunday, so we saw the rolling of nearly 30 million bushels of old-crop wheat to the new marketing year. I'm still looking for final wheat exports to come in about 5 million bushels above USDA's target, pending final wheat donations that haven't shown up in the numbers yet. Marketing year to date corn export sales total 3.184 billion bushels, up 657 million bushels or 26% from the previous year's pace, and 198 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's record high target of 3.300 billion bushels. There's still time for the pace to fall off over the next three months, but another 50 - 75 million-bushel increase in the target could be justified. Marketing year to date soybean export sales total 1.458 billion bushels - a 13-year low for this time of year. That's down 318 million bushels or 18% from the previous year's pace. Yet, it essentially matches the seasonal pace we need to be on to hit USDA's target by August 31. Granted, that target is 352 million bushels lower than the previous year's final shipments.
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A minor USDA correction to its corn yield math barely moved futures, but it landed on a market already wary of the agency's numbers. Extreme yield swings, conflicting crop signals and talk of budget cuts are reshaping how grain producers and traders read federal crop reports.
October 27 – The Fed’s October meeting kicks off today, though CME’s FedWatch currently shows 90%+ odds of the FOMC holding rates steady this week, with the next 25-basis point hike seen at the December meeting. With that said, the bigger intrigue will likely come from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference tomorrow afternoon as traders parse through his comments to shape expectations for the Fed’s path forward. Meanwhile, stock futures are pointing to a positive open, looking to add to yesterday’s gains. The VIX is falling again, off roughly 3% on the day to hang near 17.8 at the time of writing. The dollar is looking to add to yesterday’s gains as well, up just over 0.1% to trade at a nearly two-week high around the 102.15 level. Treasury yields are quietly mixed to start the day, with 2-year yields slightly higher to trade at 4.714%, while long-term yields are slightly lower, with 10-year yields at 4.98% and 30-year yields at 5.292%. Crude oil prices are quietly lower, with nearby WTI down 0.4% on the day, trading near $100.80 and nearby Brent down 0.6%, trading near $110.10. The ags are mixed to start the day, with soybeans looking to rebound after yesterday’s knee-jerk selloff in response to the unexpected re-election of Brazilian President Lula and subsequent selloff in the Brazilian Real, which is also looking to rebound this morning.
U.S. Soybean Export Concerns Rise Amid Weakening Brazilian Real
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