Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 03 May 2023, 15:33

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

May 3 - Stocks are choppy at mid-day, with the Nasdaq in the green while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes trade lower and the VIX rises near 18.8 at the time of writing as the market awaits this afternoon's announcement from the Fed. The Fed's policy decision statement is due to be released at 2:00 PM Eastern (1:00 PM Central), with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's closely watched press conference scheduled for 30 minutes after. Traders will be looking for any indications of the Fed's plan going forward, hoping for a pivot to rate cuts before the end of 2023 despite the Fed's continued insistence that they will not repeat mistakes of the past by doing so too soon. The U.S. dollar is continuing to push lower, now below 101.2, while treasury yields continue to soften as well, with 10-year yields near 3.37% and 2-year yields near 3.93%. Crude oil is continuing its fall as well, with the nearby WTI now below $69 for the first time since late March. The ags remain mixed, though the wheat complex is now screaming higher after its recent slide.

Private sector business activity grew in April at its fastest pace since May 2022, with this morning's S&P Global Composite PMI coming in at 53.4, only falling slightly from its preliminary 53.5 reading despite expectations of a sharper decline. The Composite PMI tracks overall private sector business conditions (sales, new orders, employment, prices paid/received, etc.) from both the manufacturing and service sectors, with readings above 50, like today's, indicating expansion and readings below 50 indicating contraction. After dipping into contractionary territory for seven consecutive months starting in July 2022, we've now seen three consecutive months in expansionary territory so far in 2023. Growth was firmer than expected in both sectors, with employment also growing at its fastest rate since July 2022, following this morning's stronger than expected ADP number. Despite the positivity, one potential sign of concern was an uptick in the prices paid for inputs portion, perhaps a sign of lingering inflation.

The U.S. service sector showed overall growth in April, with this morning's Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI climbing to 51.9 in April, up from the 51.2 seen in March and coming in slightly above analyst estimates of a 51.8 reading. This was driven largely by a sharp increase in new orders as well as the best supplier delivery performance seen since December 2015. However, the headline number's positivity does hide some negativity. The Business Activity portion of the index fell to 52 in April, well below forecasts of a 54.5 reading. This was a sharp drop from the month prior's 55.4 and marks the lowest reading seen since May 2020 in the heart of the initial pandemic fallout. In another potential sign of lingering inflationary pressures, the Prices Paid portion of the index rose slightly from March, the first increase seen since mid-2022.

Multiple media outlets are reporting a potential assassination attempt on Russian President Vladimir Putin overnight, as footage of a drone exploding over the Kremlin circulates on social media. With the tremendous amount of security surrounding the complex in central Moscow, it's very surprising that a drone could have made it as close as it did. Russian officials immediately blamed the attempt on Ukraine, who denies any involvement and suggests the attack must have come from within Russia, as dissent in the country has grown considerably since it launched its invasion over a year ago. In response, the Russian government said they "reserve the right to take retaliatory measures." While it's still much too soon to know what truly happened, Russia has a long history of false flag operations to provide justification for unprovoked attacks, and some Ukrainian officials fear this may be an attempt to provide pretext for escalating their attacks within Ukraine. After somewhat of a lull, Russia has picked up their long range strikes on civilians far from the frontlines in the last week. With an expected spring counteroffensive from Ukraine and Russia's May 9 "Victory Day" holiday both looming, it appears that the fighting is set to intensify further. With Russia still suggesting they will not renew the Black Sea export corridor agreement past May 18, this escalation has the potential to cause significant impacts to the grain markets if Ukrainian grain is again cut off from the global market as it was early in the war and this could be one of the causes of the rally we're seeing in the wheat market today.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

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Grains & Oilseeds

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