Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 31

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 31 May 2023, 16:34

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

May 31 - Stocks remained under modest pressure today ahead of what is expected to be a vote on the debt ceiling deal this evening that would then send the bill to the Senate. Traders are also looking ahead to the scheduled release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book this afternoon, which will provide guidance for Fed members in making their policy decisions when they meet next month. The VIX is trading near 18 at midday, while the dollar index is trading at an 11-week high near 104.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.67%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.44%. The broader commodity sector saw another sharp sell-off overnight, following yesterday's flush lower, but prices have recovered somewhat in the day session. Crude oil prices are now "just" modestly lower, whereas the grain and oilseed markets are now primarily just showing modest losses on the day as well. In fact, Kansas City wheat was the first to actually post gains today, reversing those early losses.

Today's JOLTS report revealed that job postings rose to 10.103 million at the end of April, up from analyst expectations of 9.350. Furthermore, the March data was revised to 9.745 million, up from the 9.590 million originally posted. This doesn't bode well for the doves hoping for a pivot from the Federal Reserve. Today's data suggests that the Federal Reserve has more work to do before it will be able to bring wage inflation sufficiently under control to bring overall inflation down to the 2% mandated level. Fed fund futures this morning placed the odds of another 25-basis-point rate hike at the June meeting at 69%. The JOLTS report overshadowed a Chicago PMI index at 40.4, reflecting continued weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Yet, weakness in the manufacturing sector has not been enough to offset the strength in the service and property sectors. Today's State Street Investor Confidence Index rose to 89.8, up from 83.5 the previous month. The North American index rose 9.6 points on the month to 85.1. The Asian index rose 11.8 points to 101.1, while the European index fell for the second consecutive month to 99.8, down 11.3 points.

USDA's first corn crop ratings of the season result in a condition index score of 374, down from 380 the previous year, and down from the 10-year average for the week of 377, but still relatively good. The lowest ratings were again in the southwestern Midwest, which was a theme last year as well. These ratings may decline again next week, following this week's heat and dryness across much of the Midwest. A change in the pattern continues to show up in the models for the second week of June. In fact, we're already starting to see the rains that have been focused to the west of the Ag belt slowly creep eastward, with some scattered storms in Iowa overnight. Keep in mind that the highest crop ratings of the season tend to be in June, with ratings generally trending lower into harvest beyond that. My seasonally adjusted yield model currently sits at 180.4 bushels per acre, but don't put too much into that. The graphic below shows that the correlation between the first condition index scores of the season and final yield tends to be rather low. Those correlations tend to increase as we get to pollination and beyond. As such, you won't see me talk about my yield model much for another month or so until those correlations start to improve. It's still very early in the growing season, and much can still happen in either way. We just know that an El Nino weather pattern improves our odds of a good crop, while it doesn't eliminate the risks.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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