Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 4

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 04 May 2023, 15:56

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Please note: there will be no Midday Commentary tomorrow.

May 4 - Stocks are squarely in the red at mid-day, while the VIX pushes back into the 20's (reached as high as 21.3) for the first time since late March amid rising fears on Wall Street. The dollar has risen through the morning to reach 101.3 as it looks to stop its recent skid. Treasuries are pushing lower, with 10-year yields trading below 3.33% while 2-year yields sink to 3.75%. Crude oil is still in the red, though well off overnight lows, with the nearby WTI contract trading around $68.50 at the time of writing. The ags are now mixed at mid-day, with the wheat and cattle complexes rallying to push higher after starting the day in the red.

Banking sector fears are weighing on the market yet again today, with PacWest Bancorp's stock plunging 60% from the day prior after giving confirmation to reports that the company is weighing its "strategic options" with potential partners and investors and sparking fears of another regional bank failure. The company's stock has now shed close to 90% of its value since Silicon Valley Bank's failure sparked fears for the sector in early March. This downward pressure is spilling over elsewhere in the sector, with shares of Comerica and Zions Bancorp both down around 15% at the time of writing. First Horizon Corp's shares are also under serious pressure today, down roughly 40%, following the announcement that TD Bank had terminated their agreement to take the company over. Despite attempts to assure the market that the worst is over, including comments yesterday from Jerome Powell, it seems the jitters of the banking sector are here to stay for the time being.

Russian diplomat Dmitry Peskov accused the U.S. of being behind the attempted drone attack on the Kremlin this week without providing any evidence, following yesterday's claim that Ukraine was to blame. Peskov baselessly said that Russia knows decisions about such actions are "made not in Kyiv but in Washington." This follows Russia's continued attempt to place blame on direct U.S. involvement for their struggles with Ukraine. Russia continues to ramp up their resumption of strikes far from the frontlines, with Ukraine's top Black Sea port city of Odesa being hit early this morning. It's an interesting time for Russia to be targeting the port city with the May 18 deadline for renewing the Black Sea export corridor deal looming. Top U.N. trade officials are set to travel to Moscow on Friday to continue negotiations over the deal's renewal, though Russian officials still claim they need their demands met to do so in what still seems like an attempt to get their state owned agricultural bank back on the SWIFT system. Regardless, we're seeing wheat futures reverse course from their morning losses to trade in the green once again as the uncertainty of renewal continues to grow.

Similar to the U.S. Fed, the European Central Bank hiked rates by 25 basis points today, bringing their benchmark interest rate to 3.25%. Unlike the Fed, however, ECB President Christine Lagarde was definitive in saying "we are not pausing - that is very clear" at her subsequent press conference, though the 25 point hike does represent a slowdown from their recent string of 50 basis point increases. This morning's Euro Area PPI did show improvement to inflationary pressures in Europe, with March showing a 5.9% year-on-year climb, the lowest rate seen since March 2021. With a target of 2%, however, there's still more work to be done.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Grains & Oilseeds

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