Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 7

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Thu, 07 May 2026, 16:44

May 7 – A more cautious tone has settled in at midday, with stocks paring early session gains as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both turn into the red while the tech-heavy Nasdaq clings to small gains and the VIX remains relatively muted as it trades near the 17.5 level. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghei told Tasnim News today that “Iran has not yet reached a final conclusion, and no response has been given to the American side,” in reference to the one-page U.S. proposal to end hostilities. There have been unconfirmed reports of Iran rejecting the proposal while details of alleged rules laid out by Iran’s newly created “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” for vessels transiting the Strait are also being circulated. In short, the fog of war remains, with earnings strength and largely positive U.S. economic data underpinning an optimistic sentiment on Wall Street, but uncertainty regarding the potential end to the conflict providing some amount of headwind. Elsewhere, the dollar remains very quiet, sitting just below unchanged on the day to trade near 97.94. Treasuries have moved narrowly into the green at midday, with 10-year yields climbing above 4.37% and 2-year yields pushing above 3.89%. Crude oil prices have pared morning losses amid the cautious tone settling in, with nearby WTI still in the red but now down only ~1.8% on the day as it trades near $94.50 while Brent futures are now down only 1.5% to trade at $99.75. The ags are mostly sharply lower at midday, led down by an ugly selloff in KC wheat, though both soybean meal and lean hog futures continue to cling to small gains.

Construction spending in the U.S. rose 0.6% month-over-month in March, well above the expected 0.2% gain and marking the first monthly expansion seen since December. The uptick was driven by a 0.8% monthly gain in private construction more than offsetting a 0.2% monthly decline in public construction. By segment, the overall strength was driven by residential construction, up 1.7% month-over-month, primarily in new single-family projects (+2.7%), more than offsetting a 0.2% drop in non-residential structures.

Consumer inflation expectations continue to rise, with this morning’s release from the New York Fed showing an uptick in median year-ahead expectations to 3.6% in April. This is up from 3.4% in March and is now tied with March/April 2025 for the highest readings since the tail-end of 2023. We’ll get another update on consumer sentiment with the more closely watched University of Michigan Survey of Consumers preliminary May data due out tomorrow morning.

U.S. exporters sold only 5.2 million bushels of old crop (‘25/’26) soybeans in the week ending April 30^th, coming in below the low-end trade estimate of 7.3 million and representing a new marketing year low. Cumulative marketing-year-to-date soybean sales sit at only 1.430 billion bushels, down 18.2% year-over-year and a further 25.2% below the previous five-year average for this point in time, continuing to lag the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s now 13-year low export target of 1.540 billion bushels. Simply put, it’s hard to see much more export demand for old crop soybean exports from the U.S. amid record supplies of cheaper South American beans, barring them being included in a potential trade deal with China at next week’s Trump/Xi meeting. However, it’s crucial to note that while export demand for U.S. soybeans is dismal, it’s also not as important to the balance sheet as it once was, with record (and still expanding) domestic crush now being the dominant demand category, accounting for 61.2% of total U.S. soybean demand in the current marketing year, easily a new high for the 2000’s.

Weekly old crop corn sales of 53.6 million bushels were in line with expectations, pushing cumulative marketing-year-to-date corn sales past the 3-billion-bushel mark for the first time in history as we continue on the path to easily set a new all-time high for U.S. corn exports in the ‘25/’26 marketing year. USDA has raised their estimate for ‘25/’26 corn exports five times since their initial 2.675 billion bushels to now sit at 3.300 billion bushels; barring a major slowdown in sales and inspections in the weeks/months ahead, don’t be surprised if they’re forced to increase yet again. All wheat sales for ‘25/’26 fell to a five-week low at 2.9 million bushels, but new crop (‘26/’27) sales of 6.9 million bushels offset that weakness, with the combined total effectively falling right in the middle of the expected range. USDA may also be forced to raise their current ‘25/’26 wheat export target from its current 900 million bushels, but it’s also worth keeping in mind that ‘26/’27 export ideas may be a bit light given the recent rally making the U.S. look expensive relative to our competitors (though this week’s sharp losses are shifting that calculus a bit). Net milo (sorghum) sales fell to zero in the week ending April 30^th, the lowest since mid-November.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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