CBOT Grains Daily Options Report
Recap of day's options activity and data.
PJ Quaid
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 1
By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
Perspective: Midday Commentary
November 1 - Today starts a new month, and with that comes a fresh supply of money seeking a home, providing renewed support for the equities and for the commodities today. Strength in the equities is limited by caution ahead of Wednesday's Fed statement, which is expected to contain the central bank's outline for tapering its asset purchases. However, the inflation story supports movement of money into the commodity sector, with fund managers focusing on those assets that have the best story. The VIX traded either side of 17 this morning, while the dollar index traded below 94.0, after probing briefly to a new high for the move above 94.3 earlier in the session. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 1.59% at midday. Crude oil prices are modestly higher, while the Ags are mostly higher as well.
Broad-based buying of the commodities focused on those Ag commodities with the best story to start the new month. That meant active buying of wheat, with all three markets hitting buy stops to push prices to new contract highs today. Renewed buying in crude oil supported strength in the edible oils as well. Active buying of soyoil and canola pushed soybean prices higher, although that strength was limited by corn/soybean spreading that favored corn. Corn prices pushed to fresh 2-1/2-month highs today as traders fretted about high input costs that could limit global production of the feed grain in 2022. Higher feed costs hurt feeder cattle demand, while live cattle futures firmed once again following last week's strong slaughter pace at higher cash prices near $126 per cwt in the Southern Plains. Lean hog futures also firmed as product prices again start showing some signs of strength.
Money flow supported the Ags to start the week, but several things could influence that as we go through the week - in either direction. The Fed will release its updated monetary policy statement on Wednesday afternoon amid expectations that it will lay out the framework for tapering its asset purchases. That will be followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, in which he must convince fund managers that the Fed grasps the significance of the inflation risks, and that it is in control of the situation. That will be followed by the monthly jobs report on Friday that will be closely watched. Meanwhile, Congress may vote on a couple of massive spending packages that could also feed the inflation story, fueling more money into the markets, or not. The headlines bear watching this week.
USDA inspected 83.5 million bushels of soybeans for export shipment in the week ending October 28th, as shown in the graphic below, along with 24.4 million bushels of corn, 4.2 million bushels of wheat and 3.0 million bushels of grain sorghum. None of the above inspected corn or wheat was destined for China, but we did see 52.6 million bushels of soybeans and 2.8 million bushels of grain sorghum get loaded onto ships for China during the week. The surge in soybean shipments has been encouraging, although more momentum is needed in the weeks ahead. Marketing year soybean export shipments to date to all destinations still fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 88 million bushels, although that is better than the 100 million-bushel deficit at this time last week. Marketing year corn export shipments to date fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 122 million bushels, versus being short by 112 million bushels the previous week.
- Grains & Oilseeds
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