Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 28

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 28 Nov 2025, 17:18

November 28 - Stocks pushed higher amid rising optimism that this weekend will be big for retailers, followed by another potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve in a couple of weeks. The VIX fell to a nine-week low below 16 at one point as a result, but it has since firmed again to trade closer to 17. The dollar index continues to slowly slip lower, trading near 99.5 at midday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.02%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.50%. Crude oil prices traded more than 1% higher, while the grain and oilseed markets were mostly higher as well, reflecting today's holiday cheer. The protein sector saw strong growth this morning, led by daily limit higher trade in the feeder cattle market. Buying was supported by USDA Secretary Rollins comments suggesting that the border with Mexico will not reopen for cattle any time soon. Meanwhile the hog market found very modest support from reports that Spain found two dead wild boars that tested positive for African Swine Fever, although it just signed an agreement two weeks ago with China allowing it to continue to export pork from other regions of the country. Spain is a primary supplier of pork to China.

Thanksgiving holiday shopping is expected to top $1 trillion for the first time ever this year, including the online shopping coming up on Cyber Monday. That comes out to roughly $890 per family, which is actually slightly below year ago levels, even though overall spending sets a new record. Earlier this week I reported a big decline in consumer sentiment, but yet we're seeing a different story in the retail sales data. The consumer continues to express concern about uncertainty in the economy, while still spending money. It's that spending that continues to keep the economy resilient, despite several years of warnings about a possible recession that never showed up.

USDA is in catch-up mode with data not released during the partial government shutdown, and that includes its export sales data. The agency released export sales data this morning covering the week ending October 16, leaving us still about six weeks behind. But that data does tell a story. This morning's data confirmed that corn export demand is on fire, wheat demand is stronger than expected as well, but soybean demand was hurting bad in mid-October. Export sales in the week ending October 18 included 111.1 million bushels of current-year corn, along with another 22.5 million bushels of next year's corn crop. The bulk of that demand came from Mexico. Soybean export sales in the week ending October 16 totaled a net 40.7 million bushels of this year's crop, while wheat sales were a net 12.5 million bushels - both seasonally weak totals, while grain sorghum sales totaled just 1 million bushels.

Marketing year to date corn export sales through the first 46 days of the marketing year totaled 1.321 billion bushels, up 43% or 397 million bushels from the previous year's pace. More significantly, the total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's record high target of 3.075 billion bushels by 281 million bushels and that surplus continues to grow. Export inspection data is current, and year-to-date inspections exceed the seasonal pace by 227 million bushels, and that gap is growing on a weekly basis as well. Wheat export sales for the marketing year to date exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 79 million bushels. On the other hand, soybean marketing year to date export sales total just 540 million bushels through October 16, down 335 million bushels from the previous year's pace, and 297 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year. China has started purchasing U.S. soybeans, along with wheat and grain sorghum. The question yet to be answered is whether those purchases will be able to close the gap for soybeans?

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

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Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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