Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 17 Oct 2025, 16:32

Today's Perspective Video: Ag Markets Feel the Strain

October 17 - Headlines were again driving price action today. Stocks reversed overnight losses created by regional bank fears when President Trump made calming remarks regarding tariffs on China. That supported soybean prices as well, combined with headlines made by USDA Secretary Rollins yesterday about finding new buyers of U.S. soybeans. Yet, Feeder Cattle futures traded the daily limit lower, dragging Live Cattle futures lower with them, following headlines from President Trump late yesterday stating that he had reached a deal that would bring beef prices down. The partial government shutdown continues to leave the markets in a void, leaving them a bit more susceptible to trading these headlines, especially when speculative fund managers are leaning hard one way or the other in the markets.

Stocks are higher at midday as Wall Street traders balance China hopes with regional bank fears. The VIX remains elevated near 23, after spiking to a nearly six-month high near 28 overnight, indicating that nerves are still a bit on edge going into the weekend, with traders worried about more headlines about regional bank problems. The dollar index is trading near 98.4 at midday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.00%, after falling to fresh six-month lows overnight, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.46%, after touching fresh three-year lows earlier in the session. Crude oil prices are near unchanged after bouncing off fresh five-month lows earlier in the day, while the grain and oilseed markets are mostly higher, led by soybean prices.

The government remains closed, leaving the markets trading without updated data to provide direction. We're still receiving export inspection data from the Federal Grain Inspection Service, giving us some idea of export demand. We know that corn export sales were at a record pace when the government shutdown on October 1, so that should keep shipments relatively strong for awhile, but we don't know if new export commitments have maintained the strong pace seen prior to October 1. We're also receiving weekly ethanol data from the Energy Information Administration, which shows that ethanol use of corn is already lagging the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the 2025-26 marketing year by more than 25 million bushels, whereas we won't have any answers on feed usage until the next quarterly stocks report in January. We can make assumptions about reduced feed usage following USDA's bearish stocks report on September 30, but I expect USDA to somehow find a way to sweep those bushels under the proverbial rug a bit longer, hoping for lower yields from the current year crop to provide it with some cover on lowering feed usage in future reports.

USDA pegged this year's corn yield at 186.7 bushels per acre in its September WASDE crop report, down 2.1 bushels from the previous month's estimate. The trade anticipated another reduction in its October report, but that didn't happen due to the government shutdown. The trade is currently hoping that the government will reopen in time for a November WASDE report, to get a better handle on this year's yields. Variability in harvest results has been unusually higher this year, with some very low yields mixed with some very high yields. A look back at all the years since 1993 finds that USDA cut its corn yield 12 times between September and its final estimate over that time period. The largest yield cuts came in 1993 (12.4 bpa) and 2010 (9.7 bpa). The average yield reduction in those 12 year was 5.3 bpa. Such a reduction this year would still leave the yield at a record 181.4 bpa, but it would reduce the perception of burdensome supplies.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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