Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 23 Sep 2022, 15:14

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

September 23 - It's "risk-off" across the board on Wall Street, as traders shed risk ahead of the weekend on recession fears. The VIX is trading just below the pivotal "30" level this morning on rising fears on Wall Street as stocks and commodities selloff. The dollar index hit a new 20-year high 112.7 at this hour, creating even stronger headwinds for the commodity sector. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.71%. Crude oil prices are trading 6% lower after plunging below the $80 per barrel level. The grain and oilseed markets are generally 2 - 3% lower as well. The momentum trading Algos are certainly involved in amplifying today's selloff, so it will be interesting to see where we close. The headlines will continue to flow in Ukraine, where Russia will be conducting a "referendum" in four oblasts to see if its residents "want" to annex to Russia. The fighting remains fierce in some of these regions, with Russia only occupying 60 - 65% of some of the claimed territory. The conflict also raises questions about Russia's willingness to continue allowing grain to move out of Ukrainian ports through the "safe corridors." But for now, everything is interpreted through the lens of global recession that negatively impacts demand for commodities, leading to the selling as we head into the weekend.

Chicago wheat open interest fell below 285K contracts late last week, which was less than half of its total in November 2017, and the lowest that it's been in 13 years. Kansas City wheat open interest is trading near seven-year lows after falling below 150K contracts last week, which is well under half of its total traded back in 2019. Corn open interest is down by more than a third from levels seen in recent years, while soybean open interest is almost half of levels seen just two years ago. Yet, trade volume remains strong as the day-trading Algos dominate action in the markets. The volatility of the markets drove many players to the sideline in these markets over the past 18 months to two years. That gives greater influence to day-trading Algos that trade headlines, chart signals and momentum, amplifying moves when they occur. It changes the way that the markets manage supply and demand, putting greater responsibility on the cash markets to do the job. This becomes a frustration for both the producer and for the end users, as well as many of the market participants in between.

China released the third batch of pork this month from its reserves today as it attempts to squelch strong domestic pork prices. Total pork released comes to an estimated 200K metric tons. Hog feeding margins remain strong at an estimated $126 per head, encouraging expansion of hog feeding to increase supplies. This is expected to continue until pork reaches an over-supply situation, which is part of China's long-term cycle problem. In the mean time, demand for corn and soymeal is expected to increase over the coming couple of quarters due to the rising numbers of hogs being fed. China continues to encourage hog feeders to reduce the portion of soymeal in their rations to reduce the country's dependency on imported soybeans. It's estimated that this program has successfully reduced soybean demand by 14 million metric tons annually over the past five years, which amounts to more than 500 million bushels of reduced imports annually.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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