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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 24

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

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September 24 – Crude oil prices dropped and the major stock indexes jumped following Reuters reporting the U.S. and Iran exploring a phased path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. easing its economic blockade on Iran. We warned coming into the week that it was likely to be a volatile, headline-driven one amid the various diplomatic pushes happening all at once in New York, and today’s trade is a perfect reminder of that. While the renewed signs of diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran are certainly a notable development, I would again emphasize caution regarding how much can realistically be accomplished this week, particularly with IRGC-linked figures continuing to issue renewed threats of escalation at the same time. Reuters' reporting suggests both sides are actively discussing potential frameworks, but significant obstacles remain and neither appears willing to relinquish leverage without corresponding concessions. Still, even progress toward a partial or phased reopening could improve market confidence that an eventual resolution may be coming into view. The VIX has fallen in response, now hovering around 15.5 after touching a fresh high since last Wednesday at 16.57 earlier in the session. The dollar remains in the green, holding near 101.22 at the time of writing as it remains near a two-month high. Treasury yields have had a volatile session as well, with 2-year yields now slightly lower into midday, trading at 4.88%, 10-year yields remain elevated as they trade near 5.13%, as do 30-year yields as they trade near 5.435%. The ags have lost steam into midday, with the grains and oilseeds now in the red across the board, save for soybean meal clinging to small gains, while the livestock sector is mixed with feeder cattle pushing higher.

August new home sales blew past expectations this morning, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 684k, marking the highest sales pace of any month in 2026 thus far. This was sharply above the average analyst estimate of 615k and above even the highest estimate of 660k—furthermore, July was revised sharply higher, now pegged at 643k versus the 607k previously reported. Regionally speaking, this impressive strength was driven by a massive 84.9% month-on-month uptick in the Midwest and 6.9% increase in the South more than offsetting the 15.2% decline seen in the West and 36.1% decline in the Northeast. This is a significantly stronger result than expected, but the bigger concern remains what happens moving forward as the steady rise in mortgage rates weighs on prospective demand. That makes the strength in these backward-looking sales figures somewhat less informative about the months ahead, although the sharp upward revision to July does establish a considerably stronger baseline than previously thought.

The outlook becomes less constructive when shifting from completed sales to the pipeline for future construction, with August building permits falling 2.1% month-on-month to 1.403M, signaling a slowdown in housing activity moving forward, though it’s worth noting that was still slightly above estimates. Surging treasury yields are weighing on that forward-looking sentiment as well, particularly the 10-year, which serves as the primary benchmark for 30-year mortgage rates and therefore has an outsized influence on housing affordability and prospective buyer demand. 10-year treasury yields have risen to another fresh high since 2007 today just below 5.17%, keeping this concern in focus.

This morning’s weekly USDA Export Sales report was pretty ugly for the wider grains and oilseeds, taking a bit of wind out of the proverbial sails into midday, but the bigger focus remains on the results of today’s Trump/Xi meeting. Weekly corn sales for the week ended September 17 were reported at 33.0 million bushels, near the low-end of expectations, with the cumulative total of 718 million bushels slipping further behind last year’s pace as it now trails by 29.2%. Part of this may well continue to reflect prospective buyers staying on the sidelines amid the recent surge in prices, but it will be important to continue monitoring our realized sales pace in order to reach USDA’s current 3.275-billion-bushel export target. Weekly all wheat sales fell to 9.8 million bushels, below the bottom-end estimate by just over 3 million. Cumulative 2026/27 wheat sales now sit at 344 million bushels, now trailing last year by 31.3% and maintaining the slowest pace in three years. The question continues to be whether more export demand gets shifted to the U.S. in the year ahead given the ongoing disruptions in the Black Sea and reported quality issues on the Canadian Prairies, both clearly still risks today, but the market will eventually need to see more hard evidence of this coming to fruition.

Weekly soybean export sales fell sharply to 21.4 million bushels in the week ended September 17, coming in less than half of the lowest estimate of 55.1 million and marking the weakest sales for the comparable week since 2022 and the third lowest for the week of the last 30 years. China was by far the featured destination again, accounting for over half of the total, but still representing their smallest week of purchases since early July. It’s worth noting that this was likely influenced by buyers shifting into wait-and-see mode ahead of this week’s summit but also puts additional emphasis on today’s meeting between Trump and Xi. Unlike corn and wheat, however, cumulative 2026/27 soybean export sales of 779 million bushels are very robust at this point, remaining nearly double last year and maintaining the strongest seasonal pace in four years.

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