Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 25

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 25 Sep 2025, 16:48

Today's Perspective Video: What's Up With Mexico?

September 24 - Stocks opened moderately lower after this morning's data release caused investors to rethink their rate cut expectations, although stocks are well off their lows at midday. The VIX eased back below 17, while the dollar index trades near 98.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.20%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.66%, representing fresh three-week highs. Crude oil prices are quietly mixed, while the grain and oilseed sector is mixed to higher at midday. Corn and wheat export sales remain strong, providing support for the grains. Soybean prices continued to bounce despite ongoing disappointing demand in the absence of China. A portion of wheat's price support comes from a news story that Russian farmers are slow to plant this year's crop due to high diesel fuel prices following recent attacks by Ukraine on Russia's energy infrastructure. Russia's planting window will close over the next several weeks.

Existing home sales fell 0.2% in August to an annualized rate of 4 million units. Month-on-month sales increased in the Midwest and West, while they declined elsewhere. The National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated, "Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory. However, mortgage rates are declining and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months." This follows yesterday's data showing an unexpected surge in new home sales in August. People are adjusting to current mortgage rates, and taking advantage of dips in rates as they garner a bit more confidence in the economy.

Argentina's export tax holiday ended as abruptly today as it started. The tax holiday that started on Monday came to a quick end after its quota was met. The program suspended export taxes on grain and oilseeds until October 31, or until $7 billion in dollars flowed into Argentina's coffers as a result of the tax holiday, which ever came first. Sales hit that $7 billion level within three days. Reportedly, sales of soybean byproducts exceeded 4.7 million metric tons during the past three days, while soybean sales approached 2.7 mmt. Corn sales totaled 0.952 mmt, while wheat sales totaled 1.8 mmt. It's interested though that Argentina will keep its tax holiday going with no quota limitations for beef and poultry. This action comes shortly after Argentine President Milei had a conversation with President Trump. The United States has a shortage of meat currently leading to high prices. Brazil had been our top supplier of beef until Trump put a 50% tariff on Brazilian products.

U.S. exporters sold 75.7 million bushels of corn in the week ending September 18, bringing marketing year to date sales to a record pace of 1.014 billion bushels. That exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 212 million bushels. Mexico again was the featured buyer of U.S. corn during the week at a net 35.1 million bushels, followed by "unknown destinations" at another 11.4 million bushels. Exporters also sold 26.6 million bushels of soybeans during the week, with Egypt being the featured buyer at a net 6.1 million bushels, with 3.7 million of that a switch from previous sales to "unknown destinations." Marketing year to date sales to all destinations total just 404 million bushels - the slowest pace for the third week of the marketing year in 17 years, and 270 million bushels below the 10-year seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. Look for USDA to continue to ratchet down their export target the longer that China is absent from the market. Exporters also sold 26.6 million bushels of wheat and 2.2 million bushels of grain sorghum. Marketing year to date wheat export sales 16 weeks into the year total 501 million bushels, which is a 12-year high for this point in the year, and 62 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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