Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 7

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 07 Sep 2022, 15:34

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

September 7 - Stocks reversed early losses to push higher as Treasury yields pulled back from early highs today. That then led to some money rolling out of the commodities, although the grain and oilseed sector continued to post gains. The VIX slipped lower to trade near 25 as stocks firmed. The dollar index pulled back to trade near 110.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.29%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.47%. Crude oil prices remain at seven-month lows, down nearly 4% on the day. Wheat prices surged to new multi-month highs following Russian President Putin's criticism of the grain initiative that allows Ukrainian exports from three of its ports. Corn and soybean prices followed, although their prices are well off their highs currently, and in danger of slipping into negative territory.

Midwest corn and soybean crops are currently moving toward maturity, with seed size being the primary variable yet to be determined. Seed size is most determined by late season temperature and available moisture. Temperatures have largely been good for the eastern Midwest, while moisture has been a bit more variable, as shown in the graphic below that shows soil moisture percentiles for the top 16" of soil. Crop roots typically go below this level, so dry topsoil doesn't necessarily mean that the crop is under stress, but it does suggest that there may be problems. Temperatures averaged near normal, or slightly above normal, in the western Midwest, but with more variability with some hot days scattered in over the past 30 days. The past 30 days have been the fifth driest since 1979 for the time period in the western Midwest, while near normal overall in the east. In fact, 53% of the western Midwest Corn Belt received less than half of its normal rainfall over the past 30 days, while 14% received less than a quarter of its normal rainfall. Shortages were greatest and most widespread in Kansas and Nebraska, followed by portions of the Dakotas, Missouri and Iowa. I expect seed size for both corn and soybeans to be directly impacted in these regions, although that will be partially offset by larger than normal seed sizes for corn and soybeans in the eastern Midwest, as well as in more favorable areas of Iowa and southern Minnesota. I expect corn and soybean yields to come in better than expected in those areas of the Midwest that saw mild temperatures and good rains over the past 30 days, but that should be more than offset by lower-than-expected yields where conditions were more adverse over the past 30 days. Ultimately, it will take combines rolling before we see this, although USDA's field sampling this month should provide some indication.

Soil moisture is low in the top 16" over much of the Midwest. SOURCE: NOAA

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

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