Perspective: Morning Commentary December 12

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 12 Dec 2025, 14:35

December 12 – Stocks were mixed in relatively quiet trade once again overnight, with the Dow trying to build on Thursday’s run to record highs, while the Nasdaq continues to struggle under the weight of Oracle’s disappointing outlook. Yet, the markets also have that typical December malaise feel, as they struggle to find significant momentum. Even so, the VIX remains low, below 15 this morning, while the dollar index bounces off yesterday’s two-month low to trade near 98.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.19%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.55%, as the yield curve expands. Crude oil prices are modestly weaker this morning, while the grain and oilseed sector also traded mostly weaker overnight. China announced another auction of soybeans out of its reserves, while buying more U.S. soybeans to replace the auctioned soybeans. USDA announced flash sales of another 4.9 million bushels of soybeans to China this morning, along with 9.8 million bushels of corn to “unknown destinations,” and 104,328 metric tons of soybean meal to Mexico.

China’s Central Economic Work Conference concluded yesterday with some notable points of emphasis highlighted for growing that country’s economy. The overall theme of the conference was, “Stability, Consumption and Innovation-Driven.” That means that China wants to stabilize its economy, continue its efforts to shift toward a consumer-driven economy versus the current export-driven economy, doing so with a focus on technology innovation. Policy makers pledged that they will be more proactive utilizing fiscal policy amid a moderately accommodative monetary policy to implement the goals established in the 15^th Five-Year Plan developed by party leaders in late October. That means further expanding deficit spending via government bonds to keep factories operating, consumers buying, and to support debt swaps with local governments to facilitate policy support. China officially operates with a 4 – 4.5% deficit – lower than the U.S. 6 – 7% - although there is debate over how China calculates that deficit, putting more of the debt on local governments.

China will continue its efforts to stimulate consumer spending amid the loss of export demand from the West, although that is difficult to do when a deteriorating property market keeps consumer confidence in negative territory. Stimulus programs encouraging consumer trade in programs and subsidized purchases lost some of their impact late in 2025. The conference report remained vague on how authorities plan to build a strong domestic market. Nonetheless, substantial consumer subsidies are expected to remain a tool of choice in 2026. Policymakers will need to show innovation in finding new ways to stimulate consumer buying based on their evolving needs, while seeking to enhance their experiences. Much of the wealth of China – like the United States – is with the elderly, so that will be a target for stimulating spending. China will also focus on developing a new real estate model to boost property values in hopes of restoring consumer confidence in the economy. That’s a challenge with a declining population, with Fitch Ratings calling for an additional 15% decline in home sales over the next two years.

Much of the money flow is expected to target artificial intelligence, bio-manufacturing, and commercial aerospace, including low altitude transportation technology. Electric vehicles, robotics and battery technology will also be an ongoing focus for domestic investment. The above will support a push for consumption of green energy, with implications for rare earth minerals and magnets, as well as industrial metals. That will likely cool growth demand for fossil fuels, while supporting demand for industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, and lithium. China already has the virtual monopoly on the world’s supply of processed rare earth minerals – at least until the United States can rebuild its niche in the industry in the years ahead. Food security will also remain a priority, with China seeking to maintain large reserves of the food-based commodities.

What is the “neutral” interest rate for the U.S. economy that is neither stimulative nor restrictive? The Federal Open Market Committee of the Fed believes that it is near 3%. I’ve previously stated that I think it is north of 4%. Why do I think so? Keep in mind that I’m a commodity guy, so take this with a grain of salt. But here is my rationale. First, I believe that the Fed has been biased by the behavior of recent years when interest rates were artificially held low, supported by a highly regulatory environment that restricted economic growth, leading them to misinterpret the impact of those rates. Second, the economy remains very resilient, despite the uncertainty holding back both the consumer and businesses, tied to how Trump conducts business. I believe that we would be looking at something closer to 4% GDP growth with current interest rates with the stimulus factors currently in place if it were not for that “uncertainty factor” that is holding things back. Look at the growth that we had following the tax cuts in Trump 1.0, prior to the pandemic dramatically changing things with a ton of new regulations coming in during that period to hold things down. Many of those regulations are now being removed once again.

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.