Perspective: Morning Commentary December 19

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 19 Dec 2025, 14:21

Today's Perspective Video: EPA Delays Final Biofuel Regulations - Commodity Implications

December 19 – It’s been a quiet night of trade in the equities, with a bit of a holiday feel to the markets. Traders are looking for that annually anticipated Santa Claus rally again this year, hoping that recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will help to facilitate that. However, their AI fears continue to plant some scattered doubts. The VIX did manage to slip closer to 16 overnight, reflecting relative calm on Wall Street as many traders begin to take extended time off for the Christmas to New Year holiday period. The dollar index is trading near 98.6 this morning. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%, as they bounce again following yesterday’s weakness, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.49%. Crude oil prices are modestly higher this morning as they continue to consolidate above $56 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets generally drifted weaker in overnight trade.

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 0.75% today, up 25 basis points from its previous level. What’s significant about that is that 0.75% is a 30-year high! That speaks volumes regarding the decades of a monetary policy mess that the central bank is now trying to correct – policy that left its economy stagnated for much of the past 30 years. The BOJ indicated that it is ready to continue raising rates in future meetings as it provided a slightly more upbeat growth outlook, and as it continues to battle inflationary pressures. The BOJ didn’t indicate a rush to raise rates in its comments, but it certainly did communicate a willingness. For years, Japan’s economy was held back by negative interest rates, which resulted in a flood of investment money traveling to the United States for positive returns, even when our rates were low. Some of that money is returning home now, although Japanese investment in our Treasury market went up another $10.7 billion in October, making it the largest foreign investor at $1.12 trillion. Japan last saw interest rates at 0.75% in 1995, when its economy was reeling from the burst of its asset-inflated bubble. That started a prolonged battle with deflation in Japan, which I would argue was enhanced by Japan’s negative interest rate that were designed to fight falling prices. A massive quantitative easing program was also ineffective at reversing the trend.

Ironically, Japan was the model that former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke followed when seeking a path to dig its way out of the Great Recession of late 2008. Bernanke was a student of the Great Depression, and he was determined not to see the next Depression happen on his watch. He was impressed by Japan’s model for monetary policy, and implemented much of it for the United States. The primary piece that we didn’t adopt was the negative interest rates. The Fed considered them, but a study done by the St. Louis Fed showed evidence that negative interest rates simply prolong the problem rather than correct the problem. Europe followed the U.S. Fed’s leadership of adopting the Japanese model during the Great Recession, as did many other central banks. Unlike the States, Europe did adopt the negative interest rates. The Japanese model fits well with Modern Monetary Theory that justifies infusing economies with massive amounts of fiscal and monetary spending, believing that inflation can be controlled by higher taxes for it to add to spending. That model eventually falls on its face, as we’ve seen, but many policymakers in Washington still believe deeply in it, as it gives them more power. As you can tell, I am not a proponent of MMT, believing that it has never, and will never, work over the long haul, but rather it creates more problems that increase the pain level when those problems eventually have to be fixed.

China held its third auction of soybeans from its reserve supplies, as it seeks to make room for the soybeans that its state buyers are purchasing from us to fulfill obligations under the handshake trade deal of October 30. China offers roughly 20 million bushels of some of the older soybeans held in its reserve each week. The first week saw crushers take nearly 80% of the soybeans offered. Nearly 63% of the total was taken in the second auction, while just less than a third was taken in today’s auction. Crush margins are poor currently, and crusher inventories of cheap Brazilian old-crop soybeans are high, with even cheaper new-crop supplies arriving starting in 60 days. Feed demand is weak as hog producers pare back herds due to weak margins. Analysts in China are growing in their confidence that China will purchase the 12 million metric tons (441 million bushels) committed to for this year, but actual shipment of the total will likely be spread out over the next eight months, or longer.

Soybean prices continue to leak lower amid skepticism that the Chinese soybean purchases will be sufficient to justify rationing demand with higher prices, when Brazil is on the cusp of another big harvest. This year’s crop looks to be another 350 to 400 million bushels larger than the last one. Meanwhile, corn prices remain in a sideways trading pattern, supported by robust export demand, but capped by ample supplies to fill that demand. Wheat prices are once again trying to find a bottom. Dryness continues to expand in the Plains hard red winter wheat belt, as well as in parts of Europe, but it’s difficult to sustain a rally on those factors ahead of the spring green up.

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.