Perspective: Morning Commentary February 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 14:34

February 13 – More good news for the economy came from this morning’s inflation data. Stock futures rallied to erase overnight losses when the data was initially released, while the VIX fell to trade near 21, after trading near 22 earlier in the session on lingering AI fears. The dollar index fell on the inflation data, following Treasury yields lower, although both have already rebounded. The dollar index is trading near 96.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.06%, reflecting fresh two-month lows on the data release, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.42%, reflecting nearly four-month lows on the favorable inflation data, with the yield curve narrowing. Crude oil prices fell notably early this morning on a report that OPEC is considering another increase in output, but then the market recovered to trade modestly higher on ideas that OPEC must see improving demand in its outlook. The grain and oilseed markets traded mostly weaker overnight after solid gains across the board on Thursday as farmers continue to sell the rallies; both here and in Brazil.

The headline consumer price index rose just 0.2% month-on-month in January, down from 0.3% in December and down from analyst expectations that it would remain steady at 0.3% growth. The headline CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in January, down from 2.7% the previous month, and down from analyst expectations that it would drop to 2.5%. The core CPI that excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors rose at a 0.3% monthly pace in January, up from 0.2% in December, but matching analyst expectations. The core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in January, down from 2.6% in December, but matching expectations.

These are good numbers, similar to the jobs numbers that we saw on Wednesday. But like the jobs numbers, there are numbers within the report to celebrate, and numbers that raise some concerns for the future. First, the positives from the report. Energy prices were down 1.5% on the month, led by fuel oil prices falling by 5.7% and gasoline prices falling by 3.2%. That was partially offset by a 1% rise in natural gas prices, largely due to the big Arctic blast in late January that sent prices soaring. Used cars and trucks fell by 1.8% on the month, while shelter prices only rose by 0.2% on the month. Shelter has been an area of sticky inflation. Food inflation was only at 0.2% on the month as well. Overall, goods inflation continues to show very little impact from the tariffs, with many on the Street now beginning to discount that concern, although it will remain a political issue in this midterm election year. Now for the concerns. Transportation services rose by 1.4% on the month in January. I’m also concerned about the fact that falling energy prices were a large part of today’s favorable inflation numbers, and energy prices are now at relatively low levels. What happens when / if they cycle higher? President Trump doesn’t expect that to happen, and maybe they won’t, but history suggests that the unexpected happens and that cycles find ways to repeat. Nonetheless, the bottom line remains that this week’s data suggests that the economy is growing, the job market is improving, inflation is coming closer to the 2% mandate, and the Fed may be able to cut rates again this year.

Negotiators from both China and the United States continue to work toward a deal that their two Heads of State can celebrate when President Trump visits President Xi in Beijing – likely in the first week of April. I covered the progress said to be occurring in those talks yesterday, with sentiment upbeat after President Xi’s phone call to President Trump on February 4. But let’s not forget that another lengthy phone call took place several hours prior to that one – this one between President Xi and President Putin of Russia. Both were believed to be part of Xi’s strategy to rebuild support for his leadership within the Communist Party leadership in China.

Bloomberg published a story stating it had been shown a document in Russia outlining areas of anticipated commonality with U.S. goals that could lead to peace in Ukraine. It included a return to the dollar for trade, long-term aviation contracts to rebuild Russia’s fleet, joint oil and LNG ventures, preferential treatment for U.S. companies to return to Russia, cooperation on nuclear energy and AI projects, cooperation on critical minerals, and working together to promote fossil fuels in the world economy. One of the fears within China has been that a peace agreement in Ukraine could lead to Putin aligning himself with Trump at China’s expense, and we do know that Trump has been trying to leverage his way between Putin and Xi, offering cooperation that would help Russia rebuild its struggling economy. So the question now is, is the above document evidence that Russia is moving away from China and toward the United States? Many of the above factors would certainly be disruptive to Putin’s relationship with Beijing. Or, is the document meant to drive a deeper wedge between the United States and its European allies, as several of the points in the document certainly go against European objectives. Just as Trump knows that Xi needs to calm the international waters, Putin knows that the same is true for Trump ahead of the midterm elections. What we do know is that the dynamics are changing, and that will impact commodities.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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