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Perspective: Morning Commentary February 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence – Senior Grains Analyst

February 24 – U.S. equities futures are looking to recover some of yesterday’s slide, though market fears remain over the future of AI and relations between the U.S. and China post-Supreme Court decision. Tension remains over the Middle East as well, ahead of U.S.-Iran talks later this week. Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly higher this morning, with the ten-year up marginally to 4.04%; the U.S. dollar is edging higher as well. Gold futures are taking profits while silver continues to move back towards previous blowout highs. Mortgage rates are starting to move to the 6% mark or even below on the overall economic uncertainty.  

Chinese officials today said the country would decide on countermeasures to new U.S. tariffs “in due course”, following President Trump’s latest temporary levy of 15% on all U.S. imports. China was more than willing to retaliate last year when Trump’s tariffs were first imposed, with escalating rounds of counter-tariffs between the two sides until a trade truce was reached in November. Trump and President Xi are planning to meet from March 31 to April 2 in China, obviously a highly anticipated meeting between the two sides.

WTI crude oil is trading safely higher this morning but still hovering a bit off yesterday’s six-plus month highs; crude has generally been on the upswing for calendar 2026 so far, with geopolitical risks building. The U.S. and Iran will hold a third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday; the U.S. has built up their military presence in the Middle East to put pressure on Iran to give up their nuclear program, but Iran is so far only looking to make minor concessions. All non-essential personnel and families were pulled out of the U.S. embassy in Beirut yesterday.

The LSEG Vessel map below shows current bulkers carrying soybeans – all one really needs to know about the soybean export market at this point in time. U.S. soybean inspections are running 16% behind last year on a seasonal basis, with sales 5% behind; China has no real financial incentive to fill their soybean import needs from anywhere other than lower-priced Brazil, unless they decide to honor their pledge for an additional eight million tonnes of U.S. purchases. However, there is a real chance that additional domestic crush bushels could cancel out any export shortage, and soybeans will have to continue to push for additional 2026 acres with the March Prospective Plantings report still more than a month out…   

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