Perspective: Morning Commentary February 6

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 06 Feb 2026, 14:38

Today's Perspective Video: Major China Policy Shift; Implications for US Ag Exports

February 6 – Stock futures bounced back overnight, as solid earnings reports continue to counter-balance the recent round of AI jitters on Wall Street. Even so, the VIX remains elevated near 20 this morning, although that’s down from yesterday’s spike above 23, while the dollar index pulls back a bit to trade near 97.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.19%, after breaking below 4.16% overnight, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.47%. Crude oil prices are modestly lower, after trading higher earlier in the night, as traders assess their weekend headline risk flowing out of the Middle East. The grains were under modest pressure overnight, while the oilseed complex was mixed to higher as traders continue to position for the possibility of more soybeans flowing to China following President Trump’s statements this week.

Today would have been the day of the monthly jobs report from the government, but finalization of the data was delayed due to the partial government shutdown earlier this week. As such, it will be released next Wednesday. That report’s significance elevated somewhat with the data that was released this week, suggesting that hiring is slowing again, employers are posting fewer job openings, and the risk of layoffs is somewhat elevated. There is certainly data to the contrary as well, but it would be naïve to say that all is well in the job sector. As such, investors will be keen to see what the government data says for the month of January. I believe that it is too soon to panic, with many stimulative measures contained in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” just kicking in last month, but it warrants watching in the weeks ahead. Wall Street’s interest in all of this seems to be focused more on whether we get rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, since earnings reports have been good. We can’t ignore the human emotion side of that equation. The Federal Reserve resents how President Trump has injected himself into the rate cut decision, and how he has pressed his thumb heavily on their leader. As such, there may be resistance to cutting rates any further regardless of the data for the duration of Jerome Powell’s tenure as chair as a show of support for him. As such, there’s a healthy dose of skepticism on whether we would see another rate cut ahead of the June meeting, although we can’t rule out the data driving a cut if employment does deteriorate further.

A great deal of focus this week shifted to possible increased soybean sales to China following President Trump’s social media post stating that he asked Chinese President Xi to consider purchasing another 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans on top of what China has already purchased this year. I’ve gone into both the economic and political side of that question in previous comments this week, so I’ll refer back to those comments for that discussion. Let’s just say at this point that China’s decision on whether to do so will be driven more by internal Chinese politics than it will be economics or logistics, making it difficult to predict. But that decision will have significant implications on the U.S. soybean market, as well as the Brazilian soybean market – both of which are played out in the Chicago Board of Trade and in the basis markets of the respective countries.

But we may get an infusion of additional factors into that equation as early as today. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is soon expected to send its final regulations to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review, before releasing them to the public. That process can take longer, but it’s generally expected to take about three weeks. The EPA tends to send things to the OMB on Friday afternoons. As such, there’s speculation that it could send those final regulations to the OMB today, or possibly next Friday, starting the clock ticking toward the public release at the end of this month or early next month. There’s about five different scenarios that could play out going forward between the 45Z tax credit guidelines released recently and the EPA guidelines to be released soon. While we won’t know until all guidelines are released, we have observed that this Administration has thus far tended to use the nation’s biofuel program as a way to support U.S. agriculture during Trump 2.0. As such, the industry is leaning toward expectations that the final regulations will be bullish demand for biomass diesel feedstocks, with soybean oil a central focus. If so, the crushers will make sure they get their share of beans first.

Now throw in the fact that we’ve seen two more trade deals this week – one with India and one with Argentina. The India deal raised speculation about soybean oil exports, while the Argentina trade deal raised questions about soybean oil imports. Details are lacking for both of these trade deals. India was a significant buyer of soybean oil from the United States in 2025, primarily because we had surplus oil available cheap on the market due to a slowdown of biomass diesel production as the industry waited for guideline clarity. A strong biofuel program, if it happens, isn’t expected to leave much cheap surplus oil laying around to export. Argentine soybean oil would not qualify for the 45Z credits in biofuel production. We currently have large supplies of oil for this year, but we could in the future see the food sector import oil if the biofuel sector has incentives to soak up domestic supplies.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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