Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 10

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Fri, 10 Apr 2026, 13:34

April 10 – Stock futures were quietly mixed overnight, as investors assess their positions going into a weekend in which face-to-face negotiations are scheduled to begin in Pakistan between Iran and the United States, with the two sides still far apart on key issues. Traders were also bracing for the first inflation data to come out this morning covering the first month of the war following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The VIX is trading near 19 this morning, after falling to its lowest level since the war with Iran began, while the dollar index trades near 98.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.30%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.78%. Crude oil prices consolidated near $97 per barrel overnight, with Brent crude oil trading near $96 per barrel. Grain prices are again under modest pressure overnight, while soybean and soymeal prices found buying interest once again.

The headline consumer price index rose 0.9% on the month in March, up from 0.3% in February due to rapidly rising energy prices after the Strait of Hormuz was closed, but the pace matched analyst expectations. The headline CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in March, up from 2.4% in February, but slightly below the 3.3% anticipated by analysts. The core CPI that excludes the more volatile food and energy prices rose just 0.2% on the month in March, unchanged from February, and below analyst expectations of 0.3 growth. The core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in March, up a bit from the 2.5% posted in February, but below analyst expectations of 2.7%.

Regardless, the consumer sentiment numbers scheduled for release later this morning will likely show a consumer focused more on the rising headline inflation rather than the core inflation, and many of those are voters that Trump needs in this fall’s midterm election. Those consumers are expected to be focused on the 21.2% month-on-month increase in gasoline prices seen in March, and the 30.7% month-on-month increase in fuel oil costs. Gasoline prices are currently 18.9% higher than they were in March 2025, while fuel oil prices are 44.2% higher. The consumer pain index tends to be driven by the price of gas and food – the very items left out of the core inflation data. Other areas of interest saw shelter prices rise 0.3% on the month in March, while up 3.0% on the year. Transportation services were up 0.6% in March, while up 4.1% on the year. This is an area where we may see more upward pressure in the months ahead. Natural gas prices fell 0.9% on the month, while used car and truck prices dipped 0.4%. Food purchased for consumption at home fell 0.2%, while food consumed away from home rose 0.2%.

Face-to-face negotiations with Iran are scheduled to begin tomorrow in Pakistan, despite the fact that military strikes are still taking place in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz largely remains closed yet at this point. Iran’s goal remains to extend this fight as long as possible, believing that the rest of the world will tire of the pain of tight energy and fertilizer supplies and rising inflation, leading the world to turn against Israel and the United States. Iran also believes that the U.S. voter will turn on President Trump ahead of the midterm elections, unwilling to pay the price of the war as well. As such, time is on Iran’s side. It agreed to the negotiations to avoid Trump’s threatened annihilation simply to extend the fight, but it really hasn’t given in on anything to this point. President Trump wants to end the Iranian threat once and for all that has been a challenge for presidents for the past 47 years, and Israel and many other Middle East countries would like to see that happen as well. But that isn’t going to happen short of putting thousands of troops on the ground in Iran to root out the Revolutionary Guard, and that is highly unlikely to happen. Neither the president nor the American people have the stomach for that.

President Trump’s first and primary objective was to remove the nuclear threat, which he has done for now, so he’s seeking an off-ramp that allows him to declare victory while getting the Strait reopened, and to do so in time to allow the U.S. economy to take off ahead of the mid-term elections. The Strait of Hormuz is the key. That is the biggest leverage that Iran has currently. The United States is not going to send a troop or aircraft carrier into the Strait that Iran could take out with a hypersonic missile – something we don’t really have a defense for at this time. Iran knows that, and so it continues to demand protection money (reported at $1 per barrel of oil contained) in bitcoin payment to pass. Other Gulf States dependent on the Strait hate that even more than do we, but Iran has the leverage currently, and it knows it. The United States may have destroyed Iran’s nuclear threat for now, which it will now doubt work to rebuild in the years ahead, but Iran will remain a thorn for the United States, Israel, and many other Gulf States. That’s largely because there isn’t a cause that it’s not willing to die for, and that makes it a very formidable opponent. Thus the two sides will meet this weekend. That will leave headline risk in place this weekend when the markets are closed, which could lead to a volatile open on Sunday night, depending on the tone of those headlines. As such, today’s action will likely be as much about positioning for that risk as it will be actual supply and demand fundamentals in the commodity sector.

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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