Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 14

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Tue, 14 Apr 2026, 13:15

Today's Perspective Video: Iran Blockade Escalates Risks for Food & Energy

April 14 – The war with Iran continues, creating a notable global shortfall in energy and fertilizer that will take months, if not years, to restore. Yet the VIX – Wall Street’s fear index – slipped to pre-war lows this morning as stock futures firmed. Yes, Wall Street is becoming desensitized to the constant change in headlines as the war moves through its seventh week, just as it did when Russia invaded Ukraine, or as it does with just about any other big threat. The effects of the war are still very real, but Wall Street will increasingly play it out more in how it impacts earnings than with each headline that emerges. That doesn’t mean that we won’t see big market moves stimulated by headlines from time to time, but investors are growing accustomed to the daily flow and are generally less inclined to react to individual headlines.

Stock futures moved very quietly higher overnight, choosing to look for signs of hope that we could see renewed peace talks in the Middle East. The VIX is trading near 18, while the dollar index trades at a six-week low near 98.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.29%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.78%. Crude oil prices are trading near $96 per barrel, below Brent crude that is trading a couple of dollars above that level. Yet the grain and oilseed markets found modest strength overnight, with wheat conditions continuing to deteriorate in the Plains.

President Trump’s weekend decision to enforce a full blockade of Iran, including the Strait of Hormuz, caught Iran and most observers by surprise. Iran appears to be halting shipments of its own oil to avoid a direct confrontation and possible seizure of those supplies, again raising hopes that peace talks can resume. There have even been reports that Iran is considering abandoning its uranium enrichment ambitions – a key U.S. demand – although all of these reports need to be taken with a degree of skepticism. Again, much is said by both sides in the fog of war to win the public relations battle, and or to mislead the opponent. What matters is results, and that will be measured by whether we see movement toward reopening of the Strait and an easing of the hostilities. For today, investors see encouraging signs, so stocks hold and war anxieties continue to ease.

But the reality is that global energy supplies will be tight for quite some time. As painful as it is for U.S. consumers to pay higher gas prices at the pump, and U.S. farmers to pay escalating prices for fertilizer, those supplies are still present, and the prices are much higher in much of Asia and Europe where supplies are increasingly difficult to originate. Fuel shortages are very real in many parts of Asia, with the scarcity beginning to impact areas of Europe as well. Many developing countries will simply not be able to afford to pay the higher prices required to acquire limited supplies of fertilizer, and wheat will be one of the food crops with the tightest margins making it most difficult to pay the higher prices where supplies are available. The fuel shortages are very real right now, and they will get worse before they get better. The fertilizer shortages will not create an immediate food crisis as some suggest, but it will result in lower crop yields over the next 6 to 12 months in those countries most impacted, which will begin to create localized food shortages where funds are lacking to import food, and it will risk drawing down global supplies over the next couple of years. This war will have a long tail when it is over. How long of a tail will hinge on how long we have to wait until it is resolved, and then on the assessment of the actual damage that will need to be repaired.

Inflation is one of the areas where we’ll see the long tail of the war. The headline producer price index rose 0.5% on the month in March – the first month of the war. That was unchanged from a downwardly revised February pace, but considerably lower than the 1.2% monthly pace expected by analysts. The headline PPI came in at a hot 4.0% year-on-year in March, up from 3.4% in February, but that was well below the 4.7% expected by analysts. This was a big miss by analysts. The core PPI that excludes food and energy rose just 0.1% on the month, down from 0.5% in February, and below analyst expectations of 0.3%. The core PPI was at 3.8% year-on-year in March, down from 3.9% in February, and well below the 4.2% expected by analysts. Inflation at the producer level for goods rose 1.6% on the month and 4.9% on the year, up from 1.1% and 2.5% respectively the previous month, while the PPI for services was flat on the month and up 3.7% on the year in March, down from 0.5% and 3.8% respectively in February. Inflation is still a product of this war to remove Iran’s nuclear threat on the United States and Israel, but thus far the impact is less than was feared. That said, we probably have not yet seen the full impact of the long tail of the war on inflation for food and energy. The food impact will likely be a longer-term issue, while the energy portion of it will likely be seen more in the weeks and months immediately ahead. The United States currently has enough food and energy supplies, but shortages and high prices elsewhere in the world pull prices higher in the States as the price differential encourages a shifting of those supplies to areas of shortages in the world.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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