Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 15 Apr 2026, 13:24

Today's Perspective Video: Iran Blockade Escalates Risks for Food & Energy

April 15 – Stock futures traded quietly mixed overnight, as traders ponder reports that Iran would be amiable to an extension of the ceasefire in the region amid the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, although Iran refuses to confirm those reports. President Trump states that an extension may not be needed. The VIX is trading below 18, which represents a nearly seven-week low for the “fear index.” The dollar index is trading near 98.2 this morning as it bounces off yesterday’s six-week low. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.27%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.76%. Crude oil prices are trading near $91 after setting fresh three-week lows earlier in the session. The grain and oilseed sector is mixed this morning, with wheat prices pulling back a bit overnight from yesterday’s big gains, while corn and soybean prices post modest gains.

President Trump indicates that talks with Iran could resume soon, with a deal to end the war a possible product of those talks. Trump told ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl, “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” suggesting that we’ll see movement on the talks very soon. In fact, there are reports that back-channel talks continued in recent days, bringing the two sides closer together. Reuters reports that officials from Pakistan, Iran and several Gulf states also indicated that negotiations could resume in Islamabad later this week. The United States continues to seek an end to Iran’s ambition to own nuclear weapons, which means an end to its uranium enrichment program, as well as the release of existing inventories of enriched uranium. That is something that Iran has thus far refused to negotiate, although there are unconfirmed reports that Iran is starting to give on that issue. Some reports indicate that Trump has gone from Iran will “never” have a nuclear weapon to Iran will not engage in uranium enrichment for the next 20 years. Iran reportedly offered to suspend its nuclear program for three to five years. The two sides appear to agree on many other issues, but the United States is reluctant to accept Iran possessing nuclear weapons capability when it has a history of 47 years of shouting, “Death to America.”

The turning point for negotiations appears to have been when the United States walked away from the talks and promptly implemented its own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, essentially shutting of Iran’s revenue sources. Iran had been charging high protection fees for tankers wishing to exit through the Strait, with its own oil also being essentially the only oil leaving the Persian Gulf. Iran was exporting roughly 2 million barrels per day during the war, with cash prices for that oil said to be demanding as much as $170 per barrel. Much of Iran’s oil was going to China, which likely was not paying that much, but we can assume that Iran was bringing in as much as $250 million per day to fund the war prior to the U.S. blockade, in addition to the $10 to $20 million in protection money it collected. That has all been shut off currently. Furthermore, Iran will have to start shutting down its wells once its storage fills up, creating more problems. It is now starting to feel the same pain that its neighbors felt when Iran initially shut down the Strait. That leverage led to a jumpstart of the back-channel talks, which it is believed will lead to formal negotiations restarting as well.

China doesn’t release data on the size of its reserves, but some analysts estimate its crude oil reserves to be as large as 1.3 billion barrels. It’s daily consumption is estimated to be near 16.2 million barrels per day, while it produces near 4.3 mbpd. China has thus far refused to tap into those reserves, fearing it may need them later. As a result, Chinese consumers find themselves facing the same surge in gasoline prices that many other Asian customers are experiencing, creating additional challenges for an economy already under duress due to President Trump’s tariff policy. There are those in China who believe that Trump’s recent move to block the Strait of Hormuz represented a direct move against China. Certainly much of what Trump does has direct or indirect implications for China, but this move had much more to do with shutting off the revenue source for Iran. In fact, a Chinese tanker carrying oil from another Gulf state was allowed to pass this week, after initially being stopped. Nonetheless, it adds a bit more intrigue for Trump’s scheduled visit to Beijing on May 14 & 15. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and some other Gulf states appear to be behind Trump’s blockade if it does prove effective for getting Iran to the negotiating table.

Meanwhile, the blockade of Iranian oil exports takes 2 mbpd off a global market already starved for oil. That puts the global shortfall at between 14 to 15 mbpd, depending on the source. Until now, Asia and Europe have been living off supplies already in transit, or unsanctioned floating supplies that were allowed to enter the market. Those supplies are now drying up. The cash market in Aisa is more than 50% above the futures market. Freight prices are more than double normal levels in some cases, adding to the cost. The futures market doesn’t represent the energy scarcity hitting the Asian economy, and to a lesser extent, Europe’s economy. Fertilizer presents a similar story, but that’s a longer-term story. This story will have a long tail that continues after the headlines have moved on.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Morning Grain Comments 8-6

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerThu, 06 Aug 2026, 11:56

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