Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 20 Apr 2026, 13:33

Today's Perspective Video: Is the Iran War Over? Why Commodity Risks May Linger

April 20 – The highly anticipated weekend peace agreement was replaced by hardliners firing on ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, risking a collapse of negotiations with Iran. Stock futures fell and the food and energy-based commodities rallied overnight as a result, although most market responses are moderating this morning as investors hold their breath, waiting for the next headline. The VIX is trading near 19 this morning, indicating that Wall Street is not panicking at this point, while the dollar index trades near 98.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.25%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.71%. Crude oil prices are trading near $87 per barrel, several dollars off their session highs, although also more than $4 off of Friday’s close. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed, with wheat prices holding overnight gains on weekend weather concerns, while corn and soybean prices post modest losses.

It sounded too good to be true. After seven weeks of intense attacks, Iran and the United States were reportedly close to signing a framework deal over the weekend to bring an end to the war that started on February 28. Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz was open to all traffic, as long as ships coordinated passage with it. The United States declared that its blockade of the Strait was also coming to an end, except for those ships desiring to come and go from Iranian ports. President Trump wanted to keep Iranian ports blocked, costing Iran an estimated $500 million per day in lost revenue, as leverage to make sure that Iran continued work on the peace deal. A weekend signing was expected.

Ships were initially reluctant to take the chance at passing through the Strait, but then a group made the move on Saturday. Two dozen ships made it through the Strait before passage abruptly came to an end. A dozen ships quickly turned around when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard notified them that the Strait was closed, and bullets were fired at a French ship and a British ship. The Revolutionary Guard was upset that the United States continued to block Iranian ports. One Iranian ship tried to make a run through the Strait, ignoring U.S. warnings, until U.S. forces blew a hole through its engine room, bringing it to a halt. President Trump stated that U.S. negotiators were moving forward with plans to travel to Pakistan to complete work on the peace deal, and that he hoped that Iran would do the same, but he renewed his threats of a massive hit on Iran’s infrastructure if it chose not to do so, promising to finish the job at hand. For reasons previously outlined, President Trump does not want to allow Iran to string this war out, with time being on Iran’s side.

In the end, the weekend events suggest that we’re seeing a developing internal battle for control within Iran. This is one of the risks that I outlined from the start of the war seven weeks ago. The more radical Revolutionary Guard appears to be battling for control with a more moderate legislative branch within Iran, who we appear to be negotiating the peace deal with at this time. As such, the risk remains present that a signed peace deal still may not bring an end to the conflict if the Revolutionary Guard wants to continue the fight, and I believe that it will desire to do so one way or the other – either via the war or via some other means. The next challenge would be to get control of all of the enriched uranium within Iran, as the Revolutionary Guard would love to smuggle it out of the country, if possible, for use in small “suitcase bomb” attacks, or something similar. As for the markets, the primary focus will be on getting the Strait of Hormuz open, and then the repair of energy and fertilizer infrastructure, which will take much longer. But the long tail of this war will impact the energy and fertilizer sectors for a long time.

President Trump posted the results of the latest McLaughlin Poll on his Truth Social account last night. The McLaughlin Poll has a reputation for focusing on likely voters, versus many of the other polls. The McLaughlin Poll shows growing support for President Trump’s actions following his address to the nation, even among a notable portion of Democrats who want President Trump to remove the nuclear threat of Iran once and for all. The legitimacy of this poll will no doubt be the subject of debate, and that is not my point. Rather, my point is that President Trump believes the poll results, and as such, this may give him the incentive to stick to his plan to finish the job. That decreases the odds that we will see a peace agreement that fails to hold the line on the original demands of a zero nuclear program, and the requirement that Iran turn over all of the nuclear material. I would argue that what we saw over the weekend provides further indication that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard will not like those terms, and it is more likely to continue the fight. Hopefully, we will see a peace agreement reached over the next day or two. The U.S. negotiating team should arrive in Islamabad within hours to continue those talks. But the commodity markets will likely see volatility continue for some time, with considerable headline risk. The focus near term is on energy, with fertilizer being the longer-term story.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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