Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 23 Apr 2026, 13:29

April 23 – War headlines continue to be a factor influencing the commodity and equity markets, with a fresh headline this morning out of Iran speaking of the possibility of a breakthrough reversing overnight trends. That pulled stock futures off their lows, while erasing gains in many energy and food-based commodities. The VIX is trading near 19, while the dollar index trades near 98.7. Yields of 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.30%, while yields of 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.80%. WTI crude oil prices are currently trading near $94, while Brent trades near $102. Wheat prices are again trading modestly higher on weather concerns, with at least a third of the Plains winter wheat belt expected to remain dry, while corn and soybean prices were pulled into modest losses when crude oil prices dropped this morning.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 214K in the week ending April 18, up from 208K the previous week, and above analyst expectations of 210K claims. However, we only saw a slight increase in the four-week moving average, up to 210.75K claims, up from 210.0K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending April 11 total 1.821 million, up 12K from the previous week. The four-week moving average for continuing claims rose 1,250 during the week to 1.812 million. Little has changed in these numbers for many months. Few people overall are being laid off, despite the few big headline stories, but those who do lose their jobs struggle to find a new job. Nonetheless, the weekly jobless claim numbers remain at historically low levels, while the continuing claim numbers are modestly elevated.

Reports emerged this morning that Iran spoke of a possible breakthrough in negotiations with the United States over the next 24 to 36 hours, keeping the ebb and flow of emotions on Wall Street in place. The factor that seems to have had the greatest impact on Iran has not been the tremendous pounding of our U.S. military on its military sites, along with others. That certainly made it safer for U.S. servicemen in the area, once Iran’s air force and navy were eliminated, but it didn’t incentivize the Revolutionary Guard to negotiate. The Revolutionary Guard seemed content to be the “victims” in this war narrative until President Trump flipped the tables and initiated the blockade of Iranian ports. That inflicted the same pain on Iran that its shut down of the Strait of Hormuz was having on other Gulf States. That shut off Iran’s revenue source, as it had continued to export roughly 2 million barrels per day of oil, along with other products. Some estimated that revenue to be close to $500 million per day.

But that may not have been the biggest pain point for the Revolutionary Guard, as painful as it is. Depending on the source, Iran has two to six weeks of storage available to fill. Oil coming out of its wells must go into that storage if it cannot be exported. Once that storage is filled, the wells must be shut down. This is where the pain point is for Iran. Shutting down the wells can be permanently detrimental to the oil reservoir, depending on how the wells are shutdown. Improper shutdowns can permanently reduce oil production capacity. Iraq, Kuwait and Iran appear to be most vulnerable, due to the underlying geology, while Saudi Arabia is likely positioned to be the least impacted and quickest to bounce back once the Strait is opened once again. Oil revenue is the lifeblood for these Gulf State economies, and for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, it is what funds its nuclear program, as well as the proxy groups through which it carries out terrorism against Israel, the United States and others. President Trump’s blockade not only shuts off that revenue in the near-term, but it threatens to dramatically reduce it for the foreseeable future as well. Granted, that also means reduced oil supplies for China and other buyers of Iranian oil, further tightening the global balance sheet. But the greatest pain will be felt by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told reporters that the United States is seeking a trade agreement with China on broader purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities beyond soybeans. This follows a comment by President Trump several weeks ago that China showed interest in buying non-soybean row crops and other agricultural commodities. We’ve only heard the mention of more soybean purchases for the current marketing year once, and that was a Truth Social post by President Trump on February 4. We haven’t heard anything since then about soybeans.

I continue to believe that there will be a trade agreement between China and the United States. President Xi needs President Trump to ease sanctions on his economy, and President Trump needs to strengthen his voter support base ahead of the midterms. I’m skeptical that there will be meaningful quantities of old-crop soybeans in that agreement, but I do believe that there will be other Ag commodities, whether they make economic sense to China or not. My primary question is, will they negotiate down the 25 mmt of soybean purchases for next year?

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 29

June 29 – Stock futures moved cautiously higher overnight, as we approach the end of the month, and the end of the fiscal quarter. More skirmishes were seen between Iran and the United States over the weekend, but traders chose to focus on the fact that yet another agreement had been reached to halt hostilities. It’s a holiday shortened week of trading on Wall Street, with the markets set to close on Friday as America celebrates its 250th birthday. Ahead of that, we will get the June jobs report on Thursday morning. The VIX is trading near 18 this morning, while the dollar index consolidates near 101.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.11%. WTI crude oil is trading just above $70 per barrel this morning, while Brent trades below $73 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were mostly weaker ahead of tomorrow’s big USDA quarterly grain stocks and planted acreage reports, with the exception of firmer hard wheat prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 29 Jun 2026, 13:30

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 26

June 26 - Stocks trended firmer throughout the morning, moving into positive territory by mid-morning. That allowed the VIX to slip back to trade near 19 by midday, while the dollar index traded near 101.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.09%. WTI crude oil is trading near $69, while Brent trades near $72 per barrel, despite increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Wheat prices remain under pressure, led by double-digit losses in Kansas City, while corn and soybean prices are slowly attempting to crawl back into positive territory at midday, combined with some renewed buying in the edible oils for biofuel.

Arlan SudermanFri, 26 Jun 2026, 16:36

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 26

June 26 – Chip stocks weighed on stock futures overnight, contributing to general weakness across the board as Iran tries to take control of the Strait of Hormuz once again, testing the fragility of the ceasefire. The VIX elevated to trade near 21 this morning, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 101.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.40%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.10% as the yield curve steepens a bit this morning. WTI crude oil traded back below $70 per barrel this morning, as Brent traded near $73, while the grain and oilseed markets traded mostly weaker as well ahead of the weekend.

Arlan SudermanFri, 26 Jun 2026, 13:41

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