Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 24

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Fri, 24 Apr 2026, 13:20

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Senior Commodities Economist

April 24 – Peace talks could soon resume in Pakistan, with Reuters reporting sources within the country this morning claiming that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was expected to arrive in Islamabad on Friday night, while some U.S. officials have remained in Pakistan since the first round. As has been the case throughout this conflict, there have been reports casting doubt on this, and there has been no direct response from the U.S. to these claims at the time of writing, so we’ll continue to wait for the next headline to react. A three-week extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon announced yesterday may be seen as motivation for the Iranian delegation to return to the negotiating table after previously planned second round peace talks fell apart.

Unsurprisingly, the fog of war remains, but the market appears to be choosing optimism again as stock futures point to a mostly higher open and crude oil trades slightly lower. The tech heavy Nasdaq looks to lead the way to start the session, with futures implying a fresh record high, aided by a massive pre-market jump in Intel after significantly larger than expected second-quarter revenue forecasts. Nearby Brent crude oil futures are down over 5% as they fall back below the $100 mark after pushing to a fresh two-week high above $107 yesterday, while nearby WTI is down ~1.5% to hover around $95.40 at the time of writing. The VIX is down slightly as well, sitting just above the 19 level after spiking to its highest level of the week, near 21.6 yesterday, while the dollar is also off slightly to trade at 98.64. Treasuries are looking at a quiet start, with 10-year yields around 4.32% and 2-year yields around 3.83%. The ags are looking at a largely mixed start, with the wheat complex paring back some of yesterday's gains, but forecasts still calling for repeated below-freezing overnight lows over the weekend and into next week for much of the northern portions of the U.S. hard wheat belt.

Total assets in the Fed’s balance sheet rose to $6.706T in the week ending 4/15, up a slight 0.026% week-over-week but marking the ninth consecutive weekly increase. This has been a trend in recent months, with the Fed’s weekly WALCL metric (total assets less eliminations from consolidation) now up 2.63% from the bottom put in back in early December that represented a low since the pandemic spike in April 2020. However, this week’s release also marks the four-year anniversary of the Fed’s balance sheet reaching its all-time high of $8.965T in the week ending 4/13 back in 2022. The Fed’s balance sheet has been reduced by 25.19% since that peak but remains significantly elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, as can be seen in the accompanying graphic.

The reason I highlight this is because it’s likely to become a bigger topic of conversation moving forward given Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s criticism of the Fed’s prolonged use of an outsized balance sheet, arguing that it has remained unnecessarily large, long after crisis conditions passed. He contends that the slow pace of normalization risks entrenching an overreliance on central bank liquidity and weakening policy discipline over time. The graphic below shows the two major step changes in question, first in response to the financial crisis in the late 2000’s and the second in response to the COVID pandemic.

Next week’s Fed meeting, scheduled for Tuesday/Wednesday (4/28 – 4/29), is expected to be current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s last before his term’s scheduled expiration on 5/15. The drama in the month ahead is not about what the FOMC will do, with overwhelming expectations for rates to be held steady, but rather the upcoming transition. The Department of Justice probe into Powell has effectively stalled the confirmation of a successor, raising the risk that he remains in place beyond his official term expiration due to political gridlock. It’s in everyone’s best interest to avoid this snare, so hopefully cooler heads will ultimately prevail, but Fed drama is likely to be a persistent theme throughout the remainder of 2026, especially amid the backdrop of an ongoing global energy shock and its subsequent implications for resurging inflation.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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